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Keeneland Select

Churchill Downs OAKS DAY Full Card Hotlist - May 3

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:
 A:
A preferred horse to watch  B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (3) Penny Royal debuts for Asmussen and looks best in this field. (6) Thoughtful is another firster from top connections with solid works. (10) Bellofthebluegrass was second in her first two starts and belongs in the exotics. (4) Sundance Feature may thrive on dirt.

2nd race – (7) Befriended was a game second at Keeneland and should prevail here. (9) Sidamara exits a strong maiden win and will be a threat here. (11) Sedona is another maiden winner with nice credentials. (1) Weigh the Risks is worth a look on dirt.

3rd race - (10) Brigadier General can control the pace and the race. (11) Empty Tomb may rise up in a claimer. (12) Lugan Knight seems ready for an improved effort. (3) Prove Worthy should be closing quickly at the end.

4th race – (3) Elysian Field was second in her last three starts and is overdue for a win. (4) Myriskyaffair deserves consideration in her 2024 debut. (1) Swoop to Finish will benefit from a rail trip. (8) School Dance fits nicely here.

5th race – The La Troienne Stakes (G1) - (4) Idiomatic is the division champ and should start her 5-year-old campaign with a win. (5) Pretty Mischievous was the 3-year-old filly champ who is also making her initial 2024 start. Should be an intriguing showdown. (6) Xigera can be a spoiler if ready for her best try. (3) Free Like a Girl can work out a nice trip and hang around until the end.

6th race – The Unbridled Sydney  Stakes (G3) - (2) Ova Charged was dominant at Fair Grounds and will be tough to beat here. (5) Elm Drive looks like the main threat. (6) Miss Speedy should be a factor in this field. (9) Secret Money may be a factor in the stretch.

7th race –  The Alysheba Stakes (G2) - (3) First Mission was a solid winner last time and gets the nod here. (5) Il Miracolo exits a determined win. (7) Tapit Trice is working sharply for his 2024 debut. (8) T O Saint Denis is a Japanese runner who merits respect.

8th race – Modesty  Stakes (G3)  - (5) Mouffy  had a productive winter in California and gets top billing here. (11) Caroline Street is an interesting European invader. (8) Be Your Best can sneak into the picture in this field. (4) Heavenly Sunday seems set for a strong effort.

9th race – Eight Belles Stakes (G2) – (7) Denim and Pearls won decisively in the Grade 2 Beaumont and looks best here. (3) Lady Moscato is on the upswing for Lukas. (1) Impel will benefit from a rail trip. (10) Tanya Showers can make some noise here.

10th race – Edgewood Stakes (G2)  - (9) Hard to Justify makes her first start since winning at the Breeders’ Cup and can continue her winning ways here. (4) Buchu has a strong late kick and merits strong consideration. (10) Dynamic Pricing can take a step forward off his last try. (5) Mo Fox Givin will benefit from a quick pace.

11th race – Kentucky Oaks (G1)  - (11) Ways and Means had a highly useful 2024 debut in the Gulfstream Park Oaks and looks quite formidable here. (13) Just F Y I got what she needed out of her 2024 debut in the Ashland, but landed a tough post. (8) Tarifa seeks a fourth straight win and will be a major force here. (3) Where’s My Ring will benefit from having her main rivals on the outside and cannot be overlooked.

12th race – (2) Princesa Celina should relish a return to dirt in this spot. (3) Harbor Springs exits a stakes and should be the top contender. (4) Autumn Evening looked sharp in a maiden win and will be dangerous here. (7) Tweetster posted an eye-opening debut win at Oaklawn and figures to be right there at the finish.

13th race – (8) Princess Madison rallied nicely to grab second in her debut and gets the nod here. (1) Bourbon Thief may be better suited for dirt. (2) Chilled will make matters interesting at the end. (7) Sustancia can benefit from a useful debut.