Churchill Hot List - June 29

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Today’s Kentucky Hot List races to watch – Saturday, June 29, 2013

By Bob Ehalt and Shawn Rychling

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch                  B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

2nd race – (6) Brazen Persuasion  (a C last time) was a seemingly rare Asmussen firster who didn’t win. Finished second in that race after dropping from 3-2 to even money, but should make amends in this spot. (2) Whomping Willow showed speed in her debut but finished a distant second. That experience should help here. (5) Jojo’s Gal debuts for Ward, who also does well with his firsters. Should be a factor today. (8) Brad’s Ruby has been working quickly on Polytrack; dangerous if she handles dirt equally well. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-5-6-8 and Exactas: 6 over 2-3-5-8 and 2-3-5-8 over 6.

4th race – (7) Fiscal Fitness  (A) turned in a powerful effort to win last time. Steps up and stretches out here but is in sharp enough form to handle the assignment. (5) Pedestrian disappointed on turf but should revert to form back on dirt. (6) Neith might surprise in this spot after failing on turf. (8) New Moon On Monday has speed from the outside and might be the one to catch in the stretch.  Betting strategy:  7 to win, place. Exacta box: 5-6-7-8.

6th race – (9) Bell by the Ridge  (A) rallied very wide and then was outdueled to the wire, settling for second. Deserves another chance here despite the shorter distance. (3) Workin for Hops comes off a decent stakes try at Arlington and looks like the one to fear. (4) Arborville has been no worse than second in two turf starts and offers great value at 20-1. (11) Cozzetti ran OK in his 2013 debut and should be closer here. Betting strategy: 9 to win, place.  Exacta box: 3-4-9-11.

8th race – (12) High Stakes (C) was bet down from 5-2 to 3-2 then lost by a neck while being pushed out by the winner. Faces the same company here and is nicely positioned to atone. (5) Ammaroo (D) took a big hit from 9-2 to 3-1 then was squeezed in the stretch while tiring. It wasn’t the best of performances but she takes a big enough class drop to be a major factor. (8) Arky Bill was a decisive winner agaibst slightly weaker and fits in well against these. (1) Le Mans takes a steep drop and should contend from the rail.  Betting strategy: 12 to win, place. Exacta box:  1-5-8-12.

10th race – (8) Cold Feet (D) took late money and then flattened out after making a wide move. Shortens up a bit to seven furlongs and that may make the difference. (7) Charlie’s Phantasy drops after finishing a distant second and cannot be overlooked against these. (3) Smarten Destiny is usually close and could wind up in the exotics. (5) Surf Cast comes off a win, but we’ll see if he can make it two in a row.  Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-5-7-8.

 

No.

Name

Letter/
last race

 

 

Today's Race

Comment

(6)

Brazen Persuasion

C,  5/31

2 CD

Should atone for runner-up finish

(7)

Fiscal Fitness

A,  5/27

4 CD

Comes off an impressive win

(9)

Bell by the Ridge

A,  6/8

6 CD

Must respect his late kick

(5)

Ammaroo

D,  5/31

8 CD

Takes a big drop here

(12)

High Stakes

C,  6/9

8  CD

Fits well in this spot

(8)

Cold Feet

D,  5/31

10  CD

Shorter distance may help 

(7)

Aubby K

C,  5/4

7 AP

Looked good in CD mud

(9)

North by Northlite

A,  5/23

10 AP

Got into gear too late

(2)

Fusaichiswonderful

C,  5/3

9 Bel

Tries a G3 stakes at Belmont

(4)

Betweenhereancool

C,  6/2

7 PrM

Faces G3 stakes rivals at Prairie Meadows   

For more information on the Hot List, email questions to nyhotlist@gmail.com or follow the Hot List on Twitter at @nyhotlist. Contact nyhotlist@gmail.com for more information.

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