Churchill Hot List - June 30

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Today’s Churchill Downs Hot List races to watch – Sunday, June 30, 2013

By Bob Ehalt and Shawn Rychling

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch                  B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (3) Kid Twist (a C last time) was bet down from 4-1 to 5-2 and rallied along the inside to break his maiden. Steps up to face winners for the first time, but seems sharp enough to handle these. Entrymates (1) Run Hide and Hey Leroy are well spotted to add to the Ramseys/Maker’s dominance at the meet. (5) Night Seeker drops into a claimer off some competitive races in allowance company. (7) Dipsy Drew drops and switches back to dirt, which may spark a solid effort.  Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-5-7.

5th race – (1) True Blue Julie (A) moved too soon then flattened out and settled for second at this level. Shortens up to seven furlongs while switching riders and should make amends today. (5) Mary Magdalene was claimed out of a front-running win over similar and might hang on here. (6) Getaway Spot hasn’t been worse than third in her last three starts and belongs in the exotics here. (7) Rhonda’s Lemondrop  has plenty of speed and drops to a level where she should be highly competitive .  Betting strategy:  1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-6-7.

7th race – (5) Lion’s Dub (B) closed nicely to defeat beaten claimers at 10-1 for the Hot List, now drops and faces open claimers. An encore of his last effort would give him an edge over these. (8) Our Noble Heart cuts back in distance after tiring against cheaper and can register a surprise. (6) Lucky Dan disappointed after two straight wins and could be a major threat if he reverts to his previous form. (1) Jan’s Bird has speed and the rail and looms a danger at this 5 ½-furlong distance. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place.  Exacta box: 1-5-6-8. Doubles: 1-5-6-8 with 1-5-7-10. Pick 3: 1-4-5-6-8 with 5-10 with 1-6-8-11.

8th race – (10) Maserati  (B) returns to turf after a pair of runner-up finishes. Went 5 wide last time and lost to a horse who had a ground-saving trip.  May be poised to graduate. (5) Layton Register has a nice late kick and should appreciate the 9-furlong distance. (7) Professor Midnight was third in both 2013 starts and should figure in the trifecta once again. (1) Lay It Down tired in his debut and may hang on better in his second try.  Betting strategy: 10 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-7-10. Doubles: 1-5-7-10 with 1-6-8-11.

9th race – (11) Purgenality  (A) steps up after rallying in the slower center of the track and losing by a head. If he can work his way inside from post 11, he might pull off an upset. (8) Windswept showed some grit in a prolonged duel around two turns. Figures to be more formidable for Lopresti at a one-turn mile. (6) Positively has stakes experience and cannot be ignored against these. (1) Drogue flopped on Polytrack at Arlington but should perk up back on dirt. Betting strategy: 11 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-6-8-11.

No.

Name

Letter/
last race

 

 

Today's Race

Comment

(3)

Kid Twist

C,  6/7

1 CD

Comes off a game maiden win

(1)

True Blue Julie

A,  6/7

5 CD

Moved too soon last time

(5)

Lion’s Dub

B,  6/8

7 CD

Has a nice late kick

(10)

Maserati

B,  5/25

8 CD

Was hurt by a wide trip last time

(11)

Purgenality

A,  5/27

9 CD

Must overcome the outside post

(3)

Gallant Eagle

A,  5/9

6 AP

Was blocked and still finished second

(2)

Coffee Boy

D,  11/4

3 Mnr

Returns at Mountaineer off a layoff

For more information on the Hot List, email questions to nyhotlist@gmail.com or follow the Hot List on Twitter at @nyhotlist. Contact nyhotlist@gmail.com for more information.

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