Ellis Starr, a.k.a. “Ubercapper,” is the National Racing Analyst for Equibase. He publishes detailed analysis and selections for Keeneland and other tracks regularly which can be found at Equibase, Keeneland Select and other web sites. Ellis writes a widely distributed “Race of the Week” article which appears on the Equibase web site as well as America’s Best Racing.
Ellis will be posting his analysis daily for one race taken right from his complete selection and analysis report. Additionally, you can follow Ellis’ insights on twitter @ubercapper.
#2 Triple Chelsea - Fair odds 5/2
#10 Pretty Perfection - Fair odds 5/2
#4 Exaggerated - Fair odds 7/2
#3 Nobody's Fault - Fair odds 7/1
No exactas are specifically recommended here because in addition to the four contenders above, #1 Ruby Notion, #5 Rapid Rhythm, #7 Lady Aurelia & #12 Miss Katie Mae, perhaps even #9 Bibby all have some chance to run well.
In this 5 1/2 furlong "Nascar" style turf sprint, there are many ways to go, but with Triple Chelsea, Pretty Perfection and Exaggerated having a combined record of 12 for 22 on grass it's tough to look past this trio, nor to ignore longshot Nobody's Fault, who has run two races recently against easier that look to be competitive here if repeated.
I am taking a stand against favorite Lady Aurelia, who is very good and very fast, perhaps too fast for her own good here wih another "early" pace type in Lajatico in the field. If I am right, the battle for the lead between these two sets up some closers nicely. If I'm wrong…
Triple Chelsea won a turf sprint stakes just like this one in December then finished a very close third to Pretty Perfection in another similar race in January. She's 5 for 10 in her career and has a big finish. With a strong workout coming into the race and opening at hard to ignore 10 to 1 odds considering her record, she gets slight preference among a strong group of contenders.
Pretty Perfection is another "WIN" type (6 for 13). She's won 3 straight, all turf sprints like this, the last 2 stakes. She's closed well in the last eighth of a mile each time under jockey Juarez, who rides her again, so we can expect another "A" effort good enough to win today.
Exaggerated won her only previous race at Keeneland, in this stakes last year, a year ago nearly to the day and off a layoff. She returns from a layoff again, gets the services of top jockey Prat and the pattern is hard to deny so she would be no surprise if winning for the 6th time in her 10th start including back-to-back wins in this race.
Nobody's Fault is very difficult to ignore from a betting perspective as she opens at 30/1odds. Her two races since making her 4 year old debut were excellent, both at this distance on turf, with the filly having earned a 103 Equibase figure in one of them as good as the figures earned by the main contenders in similar stakes.
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