Ellis Starr, a.k.a. “Ubercapper,” is the National Racing Analyst for Equibase. He publishes detailed analysis and selections for Keeneland and other tracks regularly which can be found at Equibase, Keeneland Select and other web sites. Ellis writes a widely distributed “Race of the Week” article which appears on the Equibase web site as well as America’s Best Racing. Ellis can be heard on the Horse Racing Radio Network's "Weekend Stakes Preview" show every Friday from 6 to 7 pm (ET) covering major stakes races throughout North America.
Ellis will be posting his analysis daily for one race taken right from his complete selection and analysis report. Additionally, you can follow Ellis’ insights on twitter @ubercapper.
#11 Generosidade - Fair odds 5/2
#5 Songoficeandfire - Fair odds 7/2
#10 Personal Diary - Fair odds 7/2
#6 Button Down - Fair odds 7/2
Exacta: Box 5,6,10,11
Generosidade ships out from California on the heels of two big races at similar marathon (mile and one-half or more) distances. She won the higher level Grade 2 San Luis Rey Stakes at 70 to 1 odds in March then proved that to be no fluke when 2nd in the Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano Stakes 19 days ago. Both those races came against males, so as she's facing females only today she looks very capable of winning by repeating either of those efforts, bringing along her regular pilot in Pereira as well.
Songoficeandfire, like the top choice, is proven at the distance, having won here at Keeneland at this 12 furlong trip in the fall of 2014. She went on the bench from November, 2014 until this past February and has finished 2nd in both starts since then. She's on a pattern to improve and as she just finished 2nd in a similar grade 3 stakes fits on all counts.
Personal Diary won the important Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks in California in the summer of 2014 as a 3 year old, went on a nine race losing streak, then won here at Keeneland 16 days ago, at this 12 furlong trip. She won versus much easier in that race earlier this month but has the back class to compete and must not be discounted as a contender.
Button Down has run at this 12 furlong distance on turf 3 times in her career, finishing 2nd in all l3 races. She won a similar grade 3 race at a shorter distance on the turf last fall and in her first start of 2016, last month, she was way too far back early (nearly 25 lengths) but rallied to be beaten 9 at the end while 5th of 10 so if a bit closer early her late rally could be formidable.
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