Ellis Starr, a.k.a. “Ubercapper,” is the National Racing Analyst for Equibase. He publishes detailed analysis and selections for Keeneland and other tracks regularly which can be found at Equibase, Keeneland Select and other web sites. Ellis writes a widely distributed “Race of the Week” article which appears on the Equibase web site as well as America’s Best Racing. Ellis can be heard on the Horse Racing Radio Network's "Weekend Stakes Preview" show every Friday from 6 to 7 pm (ET) covering major stakes races throughout North America.
Ellis will be posting his analysis daily for one race taken right from his complete selection and analysis report. Additionally, you can follow Ellis’ insights on twitter @ubercapper.
#6 Hantaloop - Fair odds 3/1
#8 America Mon Amie - Fair odds 3/1
#4 Pine Needles - Fair odds 7/2
#5 Werewolf - Fair odds 7/2
#1 Candy Crush, #2 King's Ghost, #3 Heath, #10 La Majestique, #11 Salama and #12 Striking Style all have some chance to hit the board and complete exactas or trifectas so that's why none are specifically recommended as there would be too many combinations to play for the potential return.
Hantaloop returned from 5 months off on 4/8 here at Keeneland, in a main track sprint, irrelevant except for the fact it was a great prep for going long today. Back in June, 2014, she ran in a sprint off a layoff then won around two turns and with a strong 5 furlong workout since the 4/8 race and on that similar pattern I'm expecting a big effort.
America Mon Amie added blinkers for her last race and the result was a nice rally for 2nd under similar conditions. She's turning a corner and as she won 3 in a row last spring, one a turf route like this, she could be a strong factor here.
Pine Needles has been off 5 months but trainer Clement is very adept at getting horses to run well off these kinds of layoffs. The filly finished 2nd at the level before the rest and was 2nd or 3rd in her last 4 races before the rest, two of them versus tougher in stakes, so she could give a good account here.
Werewolf stayed in a race moved off turf and onto the main track when last seen, in December, but won 2 of 3 prior to that, the last of the wins coming on this turf course at Keeneland and with jockey Bridgmohan in the saddle as today. As such, she rounds out a quartet that could succeed here.
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You can get my detailed daily selections and analysis for Keeneland at Equibase, TrackMaster, Keeneland Select, Twinspires as well as many and other wagering sites