Ellis Starr, a.k.a. “Ubercapper,” is the National Racing Analyst for Equibase. He publishes detailed analysis and selections for Keeneland and other tracks regularly which can be found at Equibase, Keeneland Select and other web sites. Ellis writes a widely distributed “Race of the Week” article which appears on the Equibase web site as well as America’s Best Racing.
Ellis will be posting his analysis daily for one race taken right from his complete selection and analysis report. Additionally, you can follow Ellis’ insights on twitter @ubercapper.
#4 Renown - Minimum odds 3/1
#13 Street Fashion - Minimum odds 3/1
#14 Camp Creek - Minimum odds 9/2
#10 Generous Kitten - Minimum odds 9/2
In a deep edition of the Grade 3 Sycamore Stakes, other contenders include #3 Greengrassofyoming, #8 Bullards Alley, #1 Bigger Picture and #5 Up With the Birds. Because the race is so deep and competitive, no exactas are recommended as there would be too many combinations to play (and too much to spend) for the potential return in my opinion.
Renown has won two of his last three races, both at this mile and one-half distance considered a 'marathon' by horse racing standards. Horses proven at the trip have to be given extra consideration over those that have not, and this gelding has won 5 of 10 career starts so although lightly raced has proven he has the right stuff. Jockey Angel Cruz is 1 for 1 at the meeting having come in from his home base in Maryland and Delaware to ride a stakes winner on opening weekend and is back again, the horse having put in back-to-back 109 Equibase figure efforts which demonstrate he's holding top form.
Street Fashion has also run the best races of his career of late, missing by a nose to Renown one before last then winning by a nose, both at this 12 furlong trip. He likes to sit close to the pace and should be in the thick of the action from start to finish once again under veteran jockey Prado, who rode him just once previously, when missing by a nose in that 7/9 effort.
Camp Creek could go to post at high odds and has a chance to upset. Just a 3 year old, he came into his own by improving from 6th to 4th to 3rd to 1st culminating with a win on 7/15 then won at $500,000 stakes race at this 12 furlong trip in August. Although restricted to horses bred in Ontario (Canada) it was still a big win in a field of 11. He then finished 6th but was only beaten 5 lengths in the grade 1 Northern Dancer Stakes last month, a big effort to multiple graded stakes winners like The Pizza Man. Facing easier and still improving, he gets the services of an underrated yet very talented jockey in Rafael Hernandez and his chances must not be discounted.
Generous Kitten is for 4 for 12 on turf in his career to date including a win at 1 7/16 miles (just a 16th of a mile shorter than this trip) and a runner-up effort behind Renown last month. Leparoux was up for both his wins this year and gets back on after two races with other jockeys and the horse adds to the depth in this year's Sycamore Stakes.
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- Analysis of major stakes races every Friday at equibase.com/free
- Weekend Key Races blog at 123racing.com- Click on 123Blog
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You can get my selections and analysis for the entire Keeneland card at Equibase, TrackMaster, Keeneland Select, TVG, Twinspires, Xpressbet as well as many and other wagering sites, usually in the handicapping store.