Ellis Starr, a.k.a. “Ubercapper,” is the National Racing Analyst for Equibase. He publishes detailed analysis and selections for Keeneland and other tracks regularly which can be found at Equibase, Keeneland Select and other web sites. Ellis writes a widely distributed “Race of the Week” article which appears on the Equibase web site as well as America’s Best Racing.
Ellis will be posting his analysis daily for one race taken right from his complete selection and analysis report. Additionally, you can follow Ellis’ insights on twitter @ubercapper.
#7 Tigerbeach - Fair odds 5/2
#11 Sky Promise - Fair odds 4/1
#6 Artegon - Fair odds 4/1
#1 Copper Bullet - Fair odds 4/1
Tigerbeach comes from the barn of John Hancock, one of just a couple trainers having a lot of success with two-year-olds and first-time starters at the meeting. This colt put in two superb workouts in preparation for his career debut, the 1st the fourth best of 80 on the day, and the second the second best of 75 on the day, suggesting he can run big first time out.
Sky Promise is another fast working first-time starter, with his most recent morning workout the second best of 73 for a half-mile on the day. His dam has had five previous foals race, one of which one first time out. Trainer McPeek normally wins at a very low percentage with his first-time starters but did have one so far at Keeneland meeting and this colt could add another to his record.
Artegon is potential long shot of note, as his sire, Gemologist, has had 25% of his 60 first-time starters finished first or second in the past couple of years. The trainer wins with better than 25% of his starters, although he's not known for first-time starters or two-year-olds.
Copper Bullet gets the sometimes intimidating rail for his debut but is another with a fast 44 long workout recently at Keeneland, suggesting he may have some talent. As such, he rounds out a quartet that has a shot here.
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