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Let our experts help you handicap the day's races at Keeneland. To see the analysis provided by each handicapper, choose a handicapper name on the left, then choose a date.

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E.g., November 24

    Ellis Starr

    Ellis Starr, a.k.a. “Ubercapper,” is the National Racing Analyst for Equibase. He publishes detailed analysis and selections for Keeneland and other tracks regularly which can be found at Equibase, Keeneland Select and other web sites. Ellis writes a widely distributed “Race of the Week” article which appears on the Equibase web site as well as America’s Best Racing. Ellis will be posting his analysis daily for one race taken right from his complete selection and analysis report. Additionally, you can follow Ellis’ insights on twitter @ubercapper.


    Sunday, October 22, 2017

    Race #8

    #5 Daring Duchess - Minimum odds 5/2

    #4 Coco Channel - Minimum odds 4/1

    #10 Grateful - Minimum odds 5/2

    #2 Lottie - Minimum odds 4/1

    Daring Duchess has a win, a runner-up finish and a 3rd place finish from 4 starts in her career at this 12 furlong turf trip. She won the similar Keertana Stakes at Churchill Downs in May with Leparoux aboard, who rides today and who did not ride her in her loss last month at Kentucky Downs. She has the ability to sit off the pacesetter and pounce when called upon, which may be the winning strategy here as Daddy's Boo is an absolute need-the-lead type so it will be best to let that one go out early and wait for her to tire as she's trying this distance for the first time. Daring Duchess comes from the strong barn of Mike Maker, who has won with 8 of 28 starters at the meeting, so if the strategy of sitting 2nd, or even 3rd, in the early stages is employed, Daring Duchess can win her 2nd stakes race of the year.

    Coco Channel can, and should, be bet as well, as she opens at 20/1 odds too high to pass up. She's a lightly raced 3 year old with just 7 starts, one win, and she's never run in a stakes nor at the distance, which is why she will be ignored by many bettors. Coco Channel has run very well in her two most recent races, the last at the longest distance she's run to date, 1 5/16 miles. However, this 12 furlong trip should pose no problem as her sire English Channel gets his share of marathon and stakes winners and  her dam's sire is A.P. Indy, who won the 12 furlong Belmont Stakes.

    Grateful is another very consistent filly, also a 3 year old, with 7 first or 2nd place finishes from 8 career starts. She won the only time she raced a mile and one half on the turf and she finished 2nd the only time she ever raced at Keeneland. It also must be pointed out that the horse Grateful beat for 2nd in her most recent race (War Flag) came out of that race to win the Grade 1 Flower Bowl Stakes, and the horse that beat her is Harmonize, a grade 1 winner who has earned over $800K in her career.  New York based jockey Manny Franco comes in for just this one mount today, skipping a day of mounts at Belmont Park for North American leading trainer Todd Pletcher, so this filly must be taken very seriously for any and all wagers we make involving this race.

    Lottie beat Grateful by a half-length the only time they met previously, in June at Belmont Park at a mile and three-eighths. She finished 2nd in the similar 12 furlong Waya Stakes two races after that before a disappointing 5th of 9 finish with no excuse on 9/2. She's been rested since then and may return to competitive form but  she opens at 3/1 and those odds are too low for me to consider a win bet as she's just 2 for 12 in her career.

    Follow Me on Twitter @Ubercapper

    Other racing content

    Analysis of major stakes races every Friday at equibase.com/free

    Weekend Stakes Blog at keenelandselect.com/blogs/ksblogger

    Weekend Key Races Blog at amwager.com/handicapping

    Weekend Key Races Podcast at ubercapper.podbean.com

    Free Selection for one free race daily at:

    Woodbine - woodbineentertainment.com/Woodbine/Pages/handicapping.aspx

    Keeneland - keeneland.com/racing/expert-picks/starr

    Santa Anita – santaanita.com/author/ellisstarr

    You can get my selections and analysis for the entire Keeneland card at Equibase, TrackMaster, Keeneland Select, TVG, Twinspires, Xpressbet as well as many and other wagering sites, usually in the handicapping store.

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