Ellis Starr, a.k.a. “Ubercapper,” is the National Racing Analyst for Equibase. He publishes detailed analysis and selections for Keeneland and other tracks regularly which can be found at Equibase, Keeneland Select and other web sites. Ellis writes a widely distributed “Race of the Week” article which appears on the Equibase web site as well as America’s Best Racing.
Ellis will be posting his analysis daily for one race taken right from his complete selection and analysis report. Additionally, you can follow Ellis’ insights on twitter @ubercapper.
#5 Sentry - Minimum Odds 3/1
#1 Sakonnet - Minimum Odds 3/1
#12 Now in a Drive - Minimum Odds 7/2
#7 Findley Isle and #11 Super Buddy also have a shot in this Maiden Special Weight race scheduled for a mile and one-sixteenth on the grass.
"IF" the race moves to dirt, my preference is to pass.
Sentry finished 5th of 10 in his career debut in March in Florida, in a two-turn race. Debuting in a two-turn race can be a tough task as many horses need a prep race first and that should definitely the case with this colt whose top trainer rarely wins with first time starters. Sentry is a FULL brother to stakes winner Air Support, who earned nearly $1 million in his career, mostly on grass, so we can expect vast improvement off the experience of a race.
Sakonnet finished 2nd in his career debut in February in a turf route then finished third but broke poorly and had to run five paths wide entering the stretch so had a legitimate excuse. Going from the outside 11 post to the ground saving rail certainly helps his chances to improve off his debut and run well enough to win.
Now in a Drive returns from 4 months off after a race in which he broke poorly, rushed up then tired. He showed promise last summer when third in his debut running long on grass and his trainer has good success with horses he brings back from layoffs like this one, who has four multiple winning turf routers among his siblings so we can expect a competitive effort here.
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You can get my selections and analysis for the entire Keeneland card at Equibase, TrackMaster, Keeneland Select, TVG, Twinspires, Xpressbet as well as many and other wagering sites, usually in the handicapping store.