Ellis Starr, a.k.a. “Ubercapper,” is the National Racing Analyst for Equibase. He publishes detailed analysis and selections for Keeneland and other tracks regularly which can be found at Equibase, Keeneland Select and other web sites. Ellis writes a widely distributed “Race of the Week” article which appears on the Equibase web site as well as America’s Best Racing.
Ellis will be posting his analysis daily for one race taken right from his complete selection and analysis report. Additionally, you can follow Ellis’ insights on twitter @ubercapper.
#7 Out of My Way - Minimum odds 3/1
#8 Sly Ranger - Minimum odds 3/1
#5 Qualkris - Minimum odds 7/2
"IF" the race is run on the main track due to inclement weather, the main contenders are
#1a Upstage/#1 No Fault – Minimum odds 5/2
#11 Fairybrook – Minimum odds 5/2
Plus any of the above contenders for turf that remain in the race.
Out of My Way gets slight preference, for two reasons. The first is that she opens at 15/1 and in this kind of wide open race that may be odds to take advantage of and the second is that her debut was on dirt in a sprint (under a mile) and she may just have been in for the experience so it is not representative of what she's capable of. She is by excellent turf sire More Than Ready, out of a mare whose foals have run exceptionally well on the grass. Trainer Bradley's 2nd time starters do much better than his 1st time starters and one of his "go to" jockeys in Shaun Bridgmohan takes the call.
Sly Ranger tried turf for the 1st time, in her 2nd career start, last time out and finished a decent 4th of 11, beaten just 3 lengths at the end. She's on an improving pattern and may be sitting on a winning effort.
Qualkris returned from five months off in February, in a new trainer's care, in her turf debut, and nearly won when missing in a four horse photo by inches. She improved to be 2nd in her next race and is yet another on a strong pattern for enough improvement to succeed here.
Follow Me on Twitter @Ubercapper
Other racing content
· Major Stakes Race Analysis posted every Friday at equibase.com/free
· Weekend Key Races Blog at 123racing.com- Click on 123Blog
You can get my detailed daily selections and analysis for Keeneland at Equibase, TrackMaster, Keeneland Select, Twinspires as well as many and other wagering sites