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    Ellis Starr

    Ellis Starr, a.k.a. “Ubercapper,” is the National Racing Analyst for Equibase. He publishes detailed analysis and selections for Keeneland and other tracks regularly which can be found at Equibase, Keeneland Select and other web sites. Ellis writes a widely distributed “Race of the Week” article which appears on the Equibase web site as well as America’s Best Racing. Ellis will be posting his analysis daily for one race taken right from his complete selection and analysis report. Additionally, you can follow Ellis’ insights on twitter @ubercapper.

    Saturday, October 14, 2017

    Race 9

    Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes Presented by Lane's End

    #7 Wuheida - Fair odds 9/5
    #4 Dream Dancing - Fair odds 3/1
    #8 Madame Dancelot - Fair odds 7/2
    #9 Beau Recall - Fair odds 7/2

    Wuheida (GB) has run six times in her career, winning twice and finishing no worse than fourth in any of her races against some of the best female turf stars in Europe, if not the world. In her second career start last October, Wuheida won the important Prix Marcel Boussac for two year olds on Arc de Triomphe day, returning for her three year old campaign this past July after nine months off and running brilliantly against older fillies and mares to be second to Roly Poly in the Falmouth Stakes. After a third place finish in the German Oaks (Preis der Diana), Wuheida again took on older including the rock solid Hydrangea and was fourth in the Matron Stakes before again facing her elders just 13 days ago, finishing a head and two necks from Rhododendron and Hydrangea in the Prix de l'Opera on this year's Arc day. In the Prix de l'Opera, Wuheida earned a 122  Equibase Speed Figure which is the best figure any horse in the Queen Elizabeth II field has ever earned. In addition, jockey William Buick, who rode Wuheida in the Prix Marcel Boussac, comes in from Europe to ride, which is a very good sign the filly will run her best. Rhododendron, Hydrangea and Roly Poly have won 13 races between them including multiple group 1 events and any of them would be the odds-on favorite in this field so Wuheida appears to be a standout on class even among this group.

    Dream Dancing may be the best among the U.S. based contingent, even though it may be by a narrow margin, as she enters the race having beaten three other entrants in the Del Mar Oaks this summer in California. Dream Dancing rallied from 10th of 12 in the Oaks and was ninth with a quarter of a mile to go, inhaling the field with a seventh to first run in the last eighth of the race under Keeneland leading jockey Julien Leparoux, who rides her once again. The 111  Equibase figure earned is the best last race figure by any horse in the U.S. and if Leparoux can get her outside of the field when they turn for home as he did in the Oaks, Dream Dancing will be seen passing many if not all of these in the late stages.

    Madam Dancelot (IRE) and Beau Recall (IRE) are both owned by Slam Dunk Racing but have different trainers and will race uncoupled in the wagering, so there could be value on one or both. Madame Dancelot won the San Clemente Stakes in July at Del Mar with a 111 figure, which she duplicated with a fast finish from 12th to be beaten a nose and a neck when third in the Del Mar Oaks, while Beau Recall earned the same 111 figure when rallying from eighth to second in the Oaks. In a full field like this one on the grass, both fillies and their top jockeys, Jamie Theriot aboard Madame Dancelot and Joe Talamo aboard Beau Recall, could easily have a big impact.

    Follow Me on Twitter @Ubercapper

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