Expert Picks

You are here

Let our experts help you handicap the day's races at Keeneland. To see the analysis provided by each handicapper, choose a handicapper name on the left, then choose a date.

Please note that selections typically are available about 48 hours in advance of the race.

E.g., September 26

    Ellis Starr

    Ellis Starr, a.k.a. “Ubercapper,” is the National Racing Analyst for Equibase. He publishes detailed analysis and selections for Keeneland and other tracks regularly which can be found at Equibase, Keeneland Select and other web sites. Ellis writes a widely distributed “Race of the Week” article which appears on the Equibase web site as well as America’s Best Racing. Ellis will be posting his analysis daily for one race taken right from his complete selection and analysis report. Additionally, you can follow Ellis’ insights on twitter @ubercapper.


    Thursday, April 13, 2017

    Race #8
    Appalachian Stakes
    #2 Dream Dancing / #1 La Coronel - Fair odds 2/1 (uncoupled entry - bet both)
    #6 Coasted - Fair odds 3/1
    #4 New Money Honey - Fair odds 4/1
    #10 Lull - Fair odds 4/1
     
    This year's Appalachian Stakes is like a Breeders' Cup type race and we may see many of these win a lot of graded stakes this year. For any pick 3 or 4 tickets played (if you can afford it), use ALL    12 otherwise you could easily regret it.
     
    Dream Dancing and La Colonel both get advantageous inside posts and since both are in top form and have the same owner and trainer I will bet both, not having any interest in separating them in terms of probability to win. Dream Dancing just won the similar Herecomesthebride Stakes in Florida, beating Coasted by a neck, with a career best 100 Equibase figure. She's won 3 of 4 on grass (2nd in the other) and makes her 3rd start off a 2 month layoff, which is often a peak in a horse's form cycle.
     
    La Colonel won the fall (2 yr old) equivalent of this race, the Jessamine Stakes, easily by 4 lengths in a field of 12. She returned off a 3 month layoff last month in a similar stakes in Florida and came up just a neck short on the wire so with very logical physical improvement 2nd off the layoff she would be no surprise. It must also be noted that La Coronel defeated New Money Honey last September but had the tables turned when that one won in October. La Coronel also beat Lull the only time they faced each other previously.
     
    New Money Honey and Lull have not started yet in 2017, both last seen on 11/4 in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Having not run in five months is the ONLY reason they are rated below the top pair in terms of probability to win, but their chances to win cannot be discounted. New Money Honey won the Juvenile Fillies at 6/1 while Lull finished 4th after a big effort in which she led on faster than average fractions for the first seven-eighths of a mile. New Money Honey finished 2nd in her career debut last summer, in a turf route, while Lull won her career debut last summer in a turf sprint. As such, both can be competitive fresh. Also note that Lull finished 2nd to La Coronel in the Jessamine Stakes last fall at Keeneland and adds Lasix for the first time.
     

    Follow Me on Twitter @Ubercapper

    Other racing content

    •        Analysis of major stakes races every Friday at equibase.com/free
    •        Weekend Key Races blog at 123racing.com- Click on 123Blog
    • Free Selection for one race daily at Keeneland keeneland.com/racing/expert-picks/starr
    •        Free Selection for one race daily at Santa Anita santaanita.com/author/ellisstarr/
    • Weekly Podcast ubercapperradionetwork.madewithopinion.com/

    You can get my selections and analysis for the entire Keeneland card at Equibase, TrackMaster, Keeneland Select, TVG, Twinspires, Xpressbet as well as many and other wagering sites, usually in the handicapping store.

     

Pages

 

Keeneland

Keeneland Association, Inc. 4201 Versailles Road
Lexington, Kentucky 40510
Telephone: (859) 254-3412 Toll Free: (800) 456-3412 Fax: (859) 255-2484

©1999-2015 Keeneland Association, Inc. All Rights Reserved