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    Ellis Starr

    Ellis Starr, a.k.a. “Ubercapper,” is the National Racing Analyst for Equibase. He publishes detailed analysis and selections for Keeneland and other tracks regularly which can be found at Equibase, Keeneland Select and other web sites. Ellis writes a widely distributed “Race of the Week” article which appears on the Equibase web site as well as America’s Best Racing. Ellis will be posting his analysis daily for one race taken right from his complete selection and analysis report. Additionally, you can follow Ellis’ insights on twitter @ubercapper.

    Wednesday, October 11, 2017

    Race #7

    #12 Thewayiam - Minimum odds 5/2
    #2 Rushing Fall - Minimum odds 5/2
    #4 Miss Mo Mentum - Minimum odds 4/1
    #1 Lady O' Toole - Minimum odds 4/1
    #11 Sugar Queen - Minimum odds 4/1

    #8 Sunny Skies is yet another horse among a number of two year olds with bright futures that might have a say in the outcome here.

    This year's J P Morgan Chase Jessamine drew a full field of 14, plus two also-eligibles, the full field due to the fact this is the very last "Win & You're In" stakes race leading to the Breeders' Cup World Championships on 11/3-4. The winner of this race earns an automatic entry into the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf with a $1 million purse, and many of these 2 year old fillies are talented enough, or can improve enough from recent races, to win.

    Contenders: Thewayiam ships in from Europe for this race, last seen in France in July when 3rd of 7 in a stakes race, versus MALES. Moving back to her own gender and getting Lasix after being privately purchased and sent to the top Graham Motion barn, the equivalent 92 Equibase Figure she earned is the best in the field and with a top jockey like Rosario getting on, the filly has a big shot here as she may have beaten those males in that stakes last out if not for lacking room to run in the late stages.

    Rushing Fall won her only start, at a mile on grass, with a lot of maturity and a big late kick from 9th of 12 in the early stages. The 2nd leading jockey in North America, Javier Castellano, rode  her first out and rides back and if she can find a path to run in the late stages and put in that same kick she certainly could run well enough to win.

    Miss Mo Mentum earned her 1st win last month, in her 4th career start, but 2nd on turf, the other turf race a fine 2nd place finish. She also ran on nicely with a rally, from 6th, and is likely to move forward off a strong 87 figure effort.

    Lady O'Toole gets the ground saving rail for her 2nd turf start, coming off a win in a stakes in Louisiana last month. She too showed a lot of maturity as she sat in 4th of 12 in the early stages and pulled away late by 3 lengths. Jockey Lanerie, who did not ride last out but who was in the saddle for her maiden win in June, gets back on and that's a good sign as well.

    Sugar Queen tried turf for the second time and was beaten just a length on the wire when 3rd in a stakes at a shorter distance last time out. She adds blinkers to help her focus on the task at hand for the #1 Trainer in the country in Todd Pletcher and the horse that beat her (March X Press) is a very tough turf sprinter so she was not disgraced with that effort she can improve upon.

     Follow Me on Twitter @Ubercapper

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