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Let our experts help you handicap the day's races at Keeneland. To see the analysis provided by each handicapper, choose a handicapper name on the left, then choose a date.

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    Ellis Starr

    Ellis Starr, a.k.a. “Ubercapper,” is the National Racing Analyst for Equibase. He publishes detailed analysis and selections for Keeneland and other tracks regularly which can be found at Equibase, Keeneland Select and other web sites. Ellis writes a widely distributed “Race of the Week” article which appears on the Equibase web site as well as America’s Best Racing. Ellis will be posting his analysis daily for one race taken right from his complete selection and analysis report. Additionally, you can follow Ellis’ insights on twitter @ubercapper.

    Sunday, October 8, 2017

    Race #9

    #6 Lockdown - Fair odds 5/2
    #7 Turkish Tabby - Fair odds 9/2
    #8 Bar of Gold - Fair odds 9/2
    #11 Romantic Vision - Fair odds 9/2
    #1 Martini Glass, #5 Tiger Moth and #10 Blue Prize can also be considered contenders in this renewal of the Grade 1 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes.
    Lockdown has a slight class edge on the rest of this full field in that she has been in 3 grade 1 races among her last 5 starts. She might have won the Kentucky Oaks, run on a sloppy track perhaps similar to today's, if not for a ton of traffic trouble, then she finished 2nd I the exceptional Mother Goose Stakes with a 105 Equibase figure. Perhaps not liking Saratoga or the 10 furlong trip in the Alabama Stakes, Lockdown tried to lead from start to finish in the $1 million Cotillion last month and settled for 3rd, but that's no disgrace as 2 of the 3 leaders in the 3 year old filly division were in front of her in It Tiz Well and Abel Tasman. With a phenomenal best of 79 half-mile workout (for a trainer that does NOT work his horses fast) coming into the race, Lockdown looks pretty formidable in this race.
    Turkish Tabby is a horse I'll absolutely bet to win and place as she opens at 20/1 as she's done little wrong in 8 races, finishing 1st or 2nd in 6 of them. She has excellent tactical speed and although she's taking blinkers off she stretches out from sprints so may be the one to catch.  Having moved privately to the barn of underrated trainer Walsh since her last race, a nose defeat in a stakes in California, and having won by 5 the only previous time she stretched out from a sprint to a route, the 106 back-to-back figures Turkish Tabby earned in California tell me she fits with these.
    Bar of Gold is just $2K shy of having earned $1 million in her career, and the only time she raced at Keeneland previously she finished 2nd, in the Raven Run Stakes, in 2015. She enters the race off a fine runner-up to streaking Ami's Mesa in the Presque Isle Downs Masters Stakes and she won a route (albeit on turf) just before that. She loves it wet as she's 5 for 6 on off tracks on dirt and so  must be strongly considered for any and all wagers we make involving this race.
    Romantic Vision won the Grade 3 Locust Grove Stakes last month at Churchill Downs and has been 1st or 2nd in all 3 races she's ever run at Keeneland, including a strong classified allowance level win in the spring. Her last race 107 figure stacks up well with Lockdown, Turkish Tabby and Bar of Gold so if she runs similar to last month, and there's every sign she will, she will be right there at the finish in what should be an exciting Juddmonte Spinster Stakes.
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