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Let our experts help you handicap the day's races at Keeneland. To see the analysis provided by each handicapper, choose a handicapper name on the left, then choose a date.

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    Ellis Starr

    Ellis Starr, a.k.a. “Ubercapper,” is the National Racing Analyst for Equibase. He publishes detailed analysis and selections for Keeneland and other tracks regularly which can be found at Equibase, Keeneland Select and other web sites. Ellis writes a widely distributed “Race of the Week” article which appears on the Equibase web site as well as America’s Best Racing. Ellis can be heard on the Horse Racing Radio Network's "Weekend Stakes Preview" show every Friday from 6 to 7 pm (ET) covering major stakes races throughout North America. Ellis will be posting his analysis daily for one race taken right from his complete selection and analysis report. Additionally, you can follow Ellis’ insights on twitter @ubercapper.

    Friday, October 23, 2015

    Race #9 - Rating = 2

    #2 Al's Gal - Fair odds 5/2
    #4 Share the Sugar - Fair odds 3/1
    #6 Harass - Fair odds 7/2
    #1 Candy Crush/ 1a Personal Diary - Fair odds 7/2
    Exacta Box: 1,2,4,6 (The cost of this 4-horse exacta box at the $1 minimum level is $12. We win if any 2 of the 4 finish 1st and 2nd in any order, allowing for some margin of error as the other two can finish worse than 2nd)

    Al's Gal has 4 career wins but as two of those came in claiming races is eligible to run here. She missed by a nose in a stakes race last time out and her last two turf races before that were excellent, with 1st and 2nd place finishes, one of those at Keeneland this past spring, so she gets top billing particularly as she gets leading jockey Leparoux.

    Share the Sugar missed winning by a head and a neck last time out, at this level on turf, winning right before that in a claiming level race. She finished 2nd, beaten a neck under similar conditions a year ago on the turf at Keeneland and although she has as many 2nd place finishes (3) as wins in her career must be considered a strong contender.
    Harass won by 5 lengths on 8/14 at the one lower NW1X allowance level, then ran poorly when 9th at this level last month. She finished 5th before the win and 3rd before her other win this year so although apparently incapable of running two "A" races in a row has every right to bounce back and run well again so is yet another to consider.
    Candy Crush and Personal Diary are an entry (sharing the same owner) and both have a chance BUT Personal Diary will help the entry to be heavily bet as she's run in eight straight stakes races and the drop to allowance level draws a lot of attention and bettor's money. Candy Crush closed from 11th of 12 to get 2nd to a runaway 5 length winner here at Keeneland 2 weeks ago and won before that, but has 8 runner-up finishes in her career to go along with 2 wins. She's a must to use on any exacta tickets played at the least. Personal Diary hasn't won since August, 2014 but that win came in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks. She finished 5th one before last but was beaten under a length in a top level field and could have these easier foes over a barrel on class, but there's no telling to be sure and I just don't bet these types to win but again she has to be respected as she is facing much easier competition than in months.
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