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Let our experts help you handicap the day's races at Keeneland. To see the analysis provided by each handicapper, choose a handicapper name on the left, then choose a date.

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    Ellis Starr

    Ellis Starr, a.k.a. “Ubercapper,” is the National Racing Analyst for Equibase. He publishes detailed analysis and selections for Keeneland and other tracks regularly which can be found at Equibase, Keeneland Select and other web sites. Ellis writes a widely distributed “Race of the Week” article which appears on the Equibase web site as well as America’s Best Racing. Ellis can be heard on the Horse Racing Radio Network's "Weekend Stakes Preview" show every Friday from 6 to 7 pm (ET) covering major stakes races throughout North America. Ellis will be posting his analysis daily for one race taken right from his complete selection and analysis report. Additionally, you can follow Ellis’ insights on twitter @ubercapper.

    Friday, April 22, 2016

    Race #8

    #7 Anusara - Fair odds 7/2

    #2  Elusive Holiday - Fair odds 7/2

    #11 Sweet Diva - Fair odds 7/2

    Exacta: 2,7,11 over 2,4,7,8,10,11,12

    #4 is Sunnysami, #8 is Melaleuca, #11 is Sweet Diva and #12 is Yodel

    Note: If the race comes off the turf and is run on dirt there are no changes to the contenders.

    If the race goes as drawn then Sunnysami and Melaleuca should both want the lead early, battle for it (even on slow fractions) and be vulnerable to be passed late by the closers. That's why they are included in the 2nd position on exacta tickets and are not win contenders even though they both come into the race off runner-up finishes.

    Anusara drops in class from stakes to allowance, having won the last time she was in an allowance race, last May at the one lower NW1X level. That race was scheduled for turf but moved to dirt, and she missed by a half-length in a turf sprint like this one shortly before that, so she has all the credentials to succeed.

    Elusive Holiday won off 4 1/2 months on the bench three weeks ago and missed by a neck in her last allowance turf sprint try. Top turf jockey Lezcano gets on and as she should improve 2nd off the layoff she has every right to run another "A" race good enough to win.

    Sweet Diva came back from six months off last month, under identical conditions, and rallied from 7th to make the lead with under an 8th of a mile to go before being run down and beaten just a half-length at the end. She should be more physically fit 2nd off the rest and would be no surprise if improving to win here. 

    Follow Me on Twitter @Ubercapper

    Get my detailed selections & analysis at Keeneland Select, Equibase, Trackmaster and many other places

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