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    Ellis Starr

    Ellis Starr, a.k.a. “Ubercapper,” is the National Racing Analyst for Equibase. He publishes detailed analysis and selections for Keeneland and other tracks regularly which can be found at Equibase, Keeneland Select and other web sites. Ellis writes a widely distributed “Race of the Week” article which appears on the Equibase web site as well as America’s Best Racing. Ellis can be heard on the Horse Racing Radio Network's "Weekend Stakes Preview" show every Friday from 6 to 7 pm (ET) covering major stakes races throughout North America. Ellis will be posting his analysis daily for one race taken right from his complete selection and analysis report. Additionally, you can follow Ellis’ insights on twitter @ubercapper.

    Friday, October 30, 2015

    Race #9 - Breeders' Cup Distaff
    #12 Got Lucky - Fair odds 3/1
    #2 Frivolous - Fair odds 4/1
    #14 Sheer Drama - Fair odds 4/1
    #7 Wedding Toast - Fair odds 4/1
    Note: It was announced earlier this week that Untapable will not run in this race.
    Special Double: There is a special "daily double" available in this year's Distaff, going to tomorrow's Breeders' Cup Classic. With this wager we are trying to select the winners of both races, and the minimum wagering amount is only $1)
    Possible exacta: Box 2,7,10,12,14 and Box 7,12,14 again (since those three are lower odds we will win twice if any 2 of them finish 1st & 2nd). #10 is Yahilwa, who just finished a neck behind Got Lucky in the Spinster Stakes at Keeneland.
    Got Lucky may have done just that, or perhaps it was just her ability, when rallying from 8th of 9 to win by a neck one month ago in the opening weekend Spinster Stakes, identical to the Distaff as it was a 9 furlong race at Keeneland. Well regarded as a 3 year old last year, Got Lucky finished a poor 7th in the Kentucky Oaks but her four year old campaign has been excellent, winning 4 of 7 races and finishing 2nd in two others. With her two most recent wins having earned her 115 Equibase Figures and (excluding the Oaks ) finishing 1st or 2nd in 5 of 6 career races at this distance, Got Lucky looks capable of winning this year's Distaff.
    In spite of how I feel about Got Lucky, Frivolous is a horse we should consider at least a small bet on to win (or win/place, or win/place/show), opening at 30/1 odds. She was sent to post at 30/1 odds in June at the distance in the Grade 2 Fleur de Lis Stakes, winning rather easily over Sheer Drama, who is likely to be the betting favorite here. Although I can't find an excuse for her 4th place spinster effort at 4/1, the Fleur de Lis win came off a 9th place finish, and last fall she won the similar Fall City Handicap off a 5th place effort, so it could be there's just no way to predict when his mare will run a winning race. However, as she has won at Keeneland at the distance and as  her best effort with a 110 figure is in range of Got Lucky's best effort she is considered a longshot contender.
    Sheer Drama has faced Frivolous three times, beating her twice and losing to her once She also beat Got Lucky the only time they met, when Sheer Drama won the 10 furlong Delaware Handicap in July before Got Lucky won the Spinster. Sheer Drama won the Personal Ensign after that and has been off 2 months and that's the main different between her and Got Lucky in terms of form although I have little doubt Sheer Drama can win, her best two efforts of the year earning 113 figures no different than Got Lucky's best two efforts.
    Wedding Toast is the slight 4/1 favorite on the morning line, but with Untapable out I believe  Got Lucky may go favored. Like Got Lucky and Sheer Drama, Wedding Toast has proven  herself over and over in top company, having won two grade one races in a row. She's a perfect 3 for 3 at this 9 furlong trip but it must be noted ALL three of her recent wins came around one turn, even the 9 furlong Beldame last month. She did win twice around two turns at this distance two years ago. Her best winning effort came in  her last start, in which she earned a 111 figure, so she might need to improve just the slightest bit to beat Sheer Drama and Got Lucky. Just the same, we would be remiss to leave her off our in-race exotic wager tickets (like the exacta) as well as an multi-race wagers played such as the pick 3 or 4.

    You can get eight pages of full card detailed analysis and selections for both Friday and Saturday of Breeders' Cup weekend at, and other sites.

    Other racing content:

    Major Stakes Race Analysis posted every Friday at

    Weekend Stakes Previews every Friday 6-7 PM ET - Horse Racing Radio Network - Sirius 220/XM 206 & at

    Weekend Key Races Blog at Click on 123Blog

    Follow Me on Twitter @Ubercapper




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