Expert Picks

You are here

Let our experts help you handicap the day's races at Keeneland. To see the analysis provided by each handicapper, choose a handicapper name on the left, then choose a date.

Please note that selections typically are available about 48 hours in advance of the race.

E.g., Tuesday, October 6, 2015

    Ellis Starr

    Ellis Starr, a.k.a. “Ubercapper,” is the National Racing Analyst for Equibase. He publishes detailed analysis and selections for Keeneland and other tracks regularly which can be found at Equibase, Keeneland Select and other web sites. Ellis writes a widely distributed “Race of the Week” article which appears on the Equibase web site as well as America’s Best Racing. Ellis can be heard on the Horse Racing Radio Network's "Weekend Stakes Preview" show every Friday from 6 to 7 pm (ET) covering major stakes races throughout North America. Ellis will be posting his analysis daily for one race taken right from his complete selection and analysis report. Additionally, you can follow Ellis’ insights on twitter @ubercapper.

    Wednesday, October 7, 2015

    Race #7

    JP Morgan Jessamine Stakes

    #6 Sapphire Kitten - Fair odds 3/1

    #4 Harmonize - Fair odds 3/1

    #14 Outsider Art - Fair odds 9/2

    #9 Inconclusive - Fair odds 9/2

    #11 Family Tree - Fair odds 5/1

    This year's JP Morgan Chase Jessamine is, as it usually is, a very wide open race, for 2 year old fillies on the improve, some bound for stardom. In addition to the 60% winner's share of the 150K purse, it offers an automatic entry into the million dollar Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf to be run in just under four weeks here at Keeneland, and so many of these have been pointing to this race for some time and will bring their "A" game.
    Sapphire Kitten is one of those that will be all out to win the race, as owner/breeding Ken Ramsey wants horses in as many Breeders' Cup Divisions as possible. The filly won in a turf sprint in her debut when rallying from 8th and ran as if the added distance will be much to her liking. Leparoux rides back and she's bred to run even better at this longer trip.
    Harmonize has run two HUGE races so far in her career, giving her an experience edge on Sapphire Kitten that may or may not make all the difference. She ran big to miss by a nose in her career debut, in a turf route, no easy task, then still a maiden won the P. G. Johnson Stakes easily by 6 lengths, improving from an 84 to a 90 Equibase figure. Alvarado takes off from the entire day riding in New York for this one mount, for Hall of Fame trainer Mott, and another stakes win would be no surprise.
    Outsider Art and Inconclusive finished 1st and 2nd, respectively, in a highly rated turf sprint race at Kentucky Downs last month. Outsider Art was making her 2nd career start and is now two-for-two while Inconclusive has run three times and is making her 2nd career start on turf. Both fillies have some quality to them and can be competitive here as well.
    Family Tree closed from 5th to win easily in an 11 horse field at Kentucky Downs, with an 84 Equibase figure the same as Sapphire Kitten. That maiden figure is the same as Harmonize earned before winning a stakes and as 2 year olds can improve markedly from one race to the next so Family Tree has similar potential to improve and win, minus the Ramsey Factor.





Keeneland Association, Inc. 4201 Versailles Road
Lexington, Kentucky 40510
Telephone: (859) 254-3412 Toll Free: (800) 456-3412 Fax: (859) 255-2484

©1999-2015 Keeneland Association, Inc. All Rights Reserved