Ellis Starr, a.k.a. “Ubercapper,” is the National Racing Analyst for Equibase. He publishes detailed analysis and selections for Keeneland and other tracks regularly which can be found at Equibase, Keeneland Select and other web sites. Ellis writes a widely distributed “Race of the Week” article which appears on the Equibase web site as well as America’s Best Racing.
Ellis will be posting his analysis daily for one race taken right from his complete selection and analysis report. Additionally, you can follow Ellis’ insights on twitter @ubercapper.
Clear the Mine - Fair odds 5/2
Papa Zulu - Fair odds 7/2
Call the Colonel - Fair odds 7/2
Dazzling Gem (3rd in the Louisiana Derby and 4th in the Arkansas Derby earlier this year) is a good horse but no standout, particularly coming back from 6 months off at a mile with no prep first, although he did win at a mile in his career debut. Likewise, Whateverybodywants finished 2nd in the West Virginia Derby in August and won a little stakes in Iowa at a mile earlier this year. If playing pick 3 or 4 tickets, I'd use both in addition to the 3 win contenders above.
Clear the Mine just won 13 days ago at 7 furlongs here at Keeneland at the one lower NW1X allowance level, veteran Joe Bravo up then as now. The horse also finished 2nd at Keeneland at this mile trip a year ago. He has tactical speed so could be in front or just off the pace from the start and from an inside, ground saving post, has a big shot to win his 2nd in a row at the meeting.
Papa Zulu also enters the race off a win at the one lower level, at a mile and one-sixteenth last month at Churchill Downs. The win came in his first start off a trainer change, first on conventional dirt, and first with Bridgmohan in the saddle, who rides back, so he deserves a good deal of respect right back.
Call the Colonel is 2 for 16 in his career, compared to 2 for 9 and 2 for 5 for the other two contenders. However, his LAST four starts were all in stakes and right before that, in May, he won under the same conditions Papa Zulu won at last month. Jockey Geroux was up for the first and ONLY time in that spring win and gets back on, suggesting a pattern that may be repeated for the win.
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You can get my detailed daily selections and analysis for Keeneland at Equibase, TrackMaster, Keeneland Select, Twinspires as well as many and other wagering sites