Expert Picks - Kim Nelson

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Let our experts help you handicap the day's races at Keeneland.

Please note that selections typically are available about 48 hours in advance of the race.

E.g., Sunday, October 4, 2015

    Kim Nelson

    Kim has been involved with horses all her life. She has worked with pregnant mares, prepping yearlings, managed lay-up barns, exercise rider, assistant trainer and has trained a few of her own horses. She is also very involved in the placement of retired thoroughbreds once their racing careers are over. Kim worked as a handicapper for the Daily Racing form for 5 years before starting her work with Keeneland.

    Saturday, October 3, 2015

    Race 1

    #2 Gamblers Rose was beaten double digits last out but can overlook that one at Kentucky Downs. She is back on the dirt here which she obviously prefers and with company she has been competitive with in recent form. #6 Emmjestic just missed in her last start and can boast the best last Beyer figure. #7 Freethinker is switching from turf to dirt and draws Mike Smith to the saddle.

    $5 Across

    #2 Gamblers Rose

    Cost $15

    Race 2

    #6 All out of Aces is a first timer for the Jones camp. Team gets 26% winners from their debut runners. Solid worktab suggests his ready to go. #2 Backlash comes from another barn with high percentage first time winners. The Street Sense colt has a sharp work from the gates here at Keeneland. #8 Dan the Go to Man has a race under his belt and a strong work since his debut.

    $.10 Superfecta Box

    #1 Supreme Stature, #2 Backlash, #3 Condominium, #6 All Out of Aces, #8 Dan the Go to Man

    Cost $12

    Race 3

    #4 Exodus has been on vacation since Jan. but his worktab suggests he is ready to go. The Jones barn is very effective off the layoff and like him for the win here. #7 Bottle Rocket has a late closing kick that could be dangerous in this field that seems to have a lot of early speed. #5 Good Lord is a hardknocking horse and can’t leave him out of the exotics.

    $1 Trifecta Box

    #1 W.B. Smudge, #4 Exodus, #5 Good Lord, #7 Bottle Rocket

    Cost $24

    Race 4

    #3 Annie’s Curls ran 4th behind the very talented Songbird in her debut but didn’t show much last out when adding blinkers. She leaves the blinkers in the barn this time and with a return to her debut effort she should be tough here. #7 Sky My Sky improved significantly in her 2nd try and should appreciate the stretch out in distance. #10 Amazing Charisma adds Lasix, blinkers and moves to the dirt. Expect improvement for her.

    $.10 Trifecta Box

    #3 Annie’s Curls, #4 Wolf Gourmet, #7 Sky My Sky, #9 Maxine, #10 Amazing Charisma

    Cost $12

    Race 5

    Guessing this race will come off the turf. #14 Speechify looks the best if the race is run on the dirt. Winner of the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector he is a consistent performer. #3 Shore Runner is another that can handle the dirt but he has also been very impressive on the grass. Don’t leave him out on either surface. #5 Undrafted has never won on the dirt but does have a bullet work over the main track here at Keeneland.

    $1 Trifecta Box

    #3 Shore Runner, #5 Undrafted, #6 Something Extra, #14 Speechify

    Cost $24

    Race 6

    #3 Judy the Beauty is 4 for 4 at Keeneland and recent works suggests she is quite happyto back training on the Keeneland course. #5 Leigh Court won this race last year and she will be a formidable opponent for Judy. #4 Sweet Whiskey is a solid performer coming over with top connections.

    $.50 Trifecta Box

    #3 Judy the Beauty, #4 Sweet Whiskey, #5 Leigh Court, #7 Fioretti

    Cost $12

    Race 7

    Start of the late Pick 4

    #4 My Miss Sophia, like this filly if the race is on or off the grass. She has finished behind fellow competitor Tepin in her last 2 starts but if it comes off the grass Sophia might have a bit of an advantage. #11 Tenpin has turned triple digit Beyers in her last 4 starts and is a recent Grade 1 winner. Always a threat.

    Race 8

    #1 Rated R Superstar finished 2nd last out in the Grade 3 Iroquois. Expect him to be sharp off that effort. He is on the rail with Borel in the saddle. #7 Exaggerator boast the top Beyer figure in the field and won his last out in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special. First time around 2 turns but the Curlin colt looks up to the task. #12 Uncle Vinny adds blinkers and expect a strong effort from him.

    Race 9

    #10 The Pizza Man has been on a roll winning his last 3 including the Grade 1 Arlington Million. He is a versatile sort winning races gate to wire or coming from off the pace. 2 for 2 at the mile distance. #9 Bobby’s Kitten faded in his last but was coming off a long layoff. An amazing win in the Breeders Cup turf Sprint last year earns him plenty of respect here.

    Race 10

    Wide open Md $50K race. #9 Foreststone improved in her last start and the seven furlongs should suit her. #7 Secret Stash just beaten a ½ length last time at this level could find the winners circle here. #2 Anythingyoucando drops in for a tag for the first time.

    $.50 Late Pick 4

    Race 7

    #4 My Miss Sophia, #11 Tepin

    Race 8

    #1 Rated R Superstar, #7 Exaggerator, #12 Uncle Vinny

    Race 9

    #10 The Pizza Man, #9 Bobby’s Kitten

    Race 10

    #2 Anythingyoucando, #7 Secret Stash, #9 Foreststone

    Cost $18






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