Expert Picks - Kim Nelson

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Let our experts help you handicap the day's races at Keeneland.

Please note that selections typically are available about 48 hours in advance of the race.

E.g., February 11

    Kim Nelson

    Kim has been involved with horses all her life. She has worked with pregnant mares, prepping yearlings, managed lay-up barns, exercise rider, assistant trainer and has trained a few of her own horses. She is also very involved in the placement of retired thoroughbreds once their racing careers are over. Kim worked as a handicapper for the Daily Racing form for 5 years before starting her work with Keeneland.


    Thursday, October 15, 2015

    Race 1

    #7 Winged Lady beaten only 2 lengths for all of it in her debut effort at this level brings a bullet work for her 2nd try. #6 A Thousand Wishes turned in a strong effort last out finishing 2nd with Md $30K company.  She gets in light with the bug boy up and expect her to be competitive. #1 Fortun drops in for a tag for the first time.

    $.50 trifecta Box

    #1 Fortun, #3 B B Sea, #6 A Thousand Wishes, #7 Winged Lady

    Cost $12

    Race 2

    #6 Conspired turned in her best performance in recent form at the $30K claiming level. Dropping back to this level of company should inspire her to turn in another big effort. #5 Tizzy Be Hot has only been off the board this year when trying stakes company. Expect her to find this spot to her liking. #2 Whihelmina winner here in the spring for $25K.

    $.50 Trifecta Box

    #1 No Flowers, #2 Wilhelmina, #5 Tizzy Be Hot, #6 Conspired

    Cost $12

    Race 3

    #2 Flowing was a very expensive weanling purchase and hasn’t lived up to her purchase price yet. She has improved in her last 2 starts since moving to the grass. Backing down to the mile after a decent effort at Kentucky Downs going 1 5/16 mile may be the wake up call connections have been looking for. #1 The Strip exits 2 Md $75K races at Saratoga where she ran respectable races in both. Similar effort here lands her a share. #3 C’Est Bon beaten favorite last two outs is making her 3rd start of this cycle. She is bred for the grass and looks like a player with these.

    $.50 Trifecta Box

    #1 The Strip, #2 Flowing, #3 C’Est bon, #6  Star’s Bella Vita

    Cost $12

    $.10 Superfecta Box

    #1 The Strip, #2 Flowing, #3 C’est Bon, #6 Star’s Bella Vita, #11 Sea Light

    Cost $12

    Race 4

    #5 Buckskin Doll has been the beaten favorite her last 2 starts and is listed here at the 8/5 morning line favorite. Will try to beat her with #2 Smooth Caramel. Filly was a clear winner last out for Md $30K and makes her first start off the claim. Look 2 back on her form and notice a key race for $50K. #6 Flatter Me Zanja has been fairly consistent this year and the drop in class should help her pick up another check. #5 Buckskin Doll can’t leave out of exotics.

    $.50 Trifecta Box

    #2 Smooth Caramel, #5 Buckskin Doll, #6 Flatter Me Zanja, #7 Bon Heir

    Cost $12

    Race 5

    #4 Please Don’t Flash was a little slow out of the gates in his debut but got up for a third place finish. He has since turned in a couple of real sharp works over the Keeneland course. #2 Call the Colonel adds blinkers this time. He should also appreciate the added distance. #3 Noble Master finished 2nd last time out and is another who should appreciate the added distance in this event.

    $.50 Trifecta Box

    #3 Epic Journey, #4 Please Don’t Flash, #6 Noble Master, #7 Call the Colonel

    Cost $12

    Race 6

    #4 Abtaal is looking for a hat trick here. Older horse has some back class and looks to be finding his stride again. Rocco won on him last out and stays on board here. #10 Skyflight getting some class relief from his last two races. Colt broke his maiden over this turf course and comes over with top connections. #11 Captain Dixie is a consistent performer over the turf and at this distance. Fits with these.

    $5 across the board

    #4 Abtaal

    Cost $15

    $.10 Superfecta Box

    #1 Forward Thinker, #3 Sistas Stroll, #4 Abtaal, #10 Sky Flight, #11 Captain Dixie

    Cost $12

    Using the above 5 horse for first leg of Pick 4

    Race 7

    #4 Watershed broke slow last out and ran in to a bear in Runhappy. He did make up a lot of ground in the Grade 1 King Bishop to finish 4th and expect him to be very tough here. #5 Holding Aces posted a big Beyer number in winning his debut effort. #7 Tiznow R J is making his first off the layoff after facing some tough company earlier this year.

    Using the #4 Watershed and #5 Holding Aces in Late Pick 4

    Race 8

    #1 Da Big Hoss is a consistent performer that has won his last 2 starts. He hasn’t missed a check this year and expect the Lemon Drop Kid colt to run big here. #6 Divine Oath won 5 of 9 starts last year while keeping Graded company. Not as successful this year so far but after some freshening and a new barn he deserves a look here. #9 Xtra Luck is experienced at the distance and his Beyer numbers suggest he can stay for part.

    Using #1 Da Big Hoss and #6 Divine Oath

    Race 9

    #4 Magical Connections is making his first start off the claim. Barn is 27% with this sort. Also adding blinkers. #1 Monkey Business making slight drop and fits here. #6 Black Watch is making a significant drop in class.

    Using #4 Magical Connections, #1 Monkey Business and #6 Black Watch

    $.50 Late Pick 4

    Race 6

    #1 Forward Thinker, #3 Sistas Stroll #4 Abtaal, #10 Sky Flight, #Captain Dixie

    Race 7

    #4 Watershed, #5 Holding Aces

    Race 8

    #1 Da Big Hoss, #6 Divine Oath

    Race 9

    #1 Monkey Business, #4 Magical Connection, #6 Black Watch

    Cost $30

     

     

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