Expert Picks - Kim Nelson

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Please note that selections typically are available about 48 hours in advance of the race.

E.g., November 25

    Kim Nelson

    Kim has been involved with horses all her life. She has worked with pregnant mares, prepping yearlings, managed lay-up barns, exercise rider, assistant trainer and has trained a few of her own horses. She is also very involved in the placement of retired thoroughbreds once their racing careers are over. Kim worked as a handicapper for the Daily Racing form for 5 years before starting her work with Keeneland.

    Wednesday, October 14, 2015

    Race 1

    #3 Al’s Rosie switches from turf to dirt but the mare has won over the dirt and she may have found the right spot here. Possibly enough back class to pull this one off. #6 Too Cool was a winner 2 starts back over the dirt course at Indiana Downs. She is probably better over the grass but she still could land a share here. #1 Out to Sea has been consistent this year and draws Lanerie to the saddle.

    $.50 Trifecta Box

    #1 Out to Sea, #2 Tellalittlesecret, #3 Al’s Rosie, #6 Too Cool

    Cost $12

    Race 2

    #1 Say Hey Kid didn’t like the slop last time and can draw a line through that race. He has faced some tough competition in only 3 starts and will give him the edge in this one. #6 Deep in a Dream was all out in the slop last time finishing 2nd to impressive maiden winner Counquest Big E. Doubting that he can return in 12 days after tough performance and win here but still expect him to land a share. #4 Triple Creek is a firster for the Maker barn. Leparoux takes the mount, barn is 18% with firsters so expect him to be ready to run.

    $.10 Superfecta Box

    #1 Say Hey Kid, #2 Mo’ Munnings, #4 Triple Creek, #6 Deep in a Dream, #7 Moonlight Mischief

    Cost $12

    Race 3

    #1 Hunter’s Strike is making his 3rd start off the layoff. He drops in for a tag for the first time and should appreciate this spot. #3 Shipwreck Kelly is coming off a summer vacation and may need a race. Still think his past performances suggest he can land a share. #4 Curlino shortens back up to 6 furlongs and moves to the dirt. Barn looking for his niche but can’t leave him out.

    $.10 Superfecta Box

    #1 Hunter’s Strike, #2 Creative Evil, #4 Curlino, #5 How About Him, #6 Hunter’s Strike

    Cost $12

    Race 4

    #2 Love the Kitten is the 6/5 morning line favorite. Have to pick against this one even though she does have an experience edge and probably a fitness edge. But a Kitten’s Joy on the dirt at that price who has been well beaten her last 3 starts suggest a vulnerable favorite. #4 Sensuous Pat didn’t show much in her only start but 2 turns first time out is tough especially on the grass. She should have gained enough experience from that one to improve here. She also adds Lasix and Leparoux takes over the reins. #7 Game Trail is making her 3rd career start and also adds Lasix.

    $.50 Trifecta Box

    #1 Peppermint Ice, #2 Love the Kitten, #4 Sensuous Pat, #7 Game Trail

    Cost $12

    Race 5

    #3 One Liz is 3 for 3 this year and 2 for 2 at this distance. Jockey Murrill has been on fire here and like this filly for the win. #1 Beside Still Water is an entry with #1A Jewelisa. Like both these fillies in this spot and expect one or both to show up for part. #5 Streamline likes the front end and should stick around to pick up a check.

    $10 to win

    #3 One Liz

    Cost $10

    Race 6

    #12 Lady Day Blues is making her 3rd career start and exits a key race. The 7 furlongs should suit the Uncle Mo filly and 2nd start with Lasix with Leparoux in the saddle seals the deal. #2 Midnight Visitor turned in a decent effort in her debut. Sure she gained fitness off that one and a player here. #8 Abundant Flurry has been working very well for her debut.

    $.50 Trifecta Box

    #2 Midnight Visitor, #5 Red Fern Doll, #8 Abundant Flurry, #12 Lady Day Blues

    Cost $12

    Race 7

    Tough race to handicap but going with #4 Two to Tango for the Lynch barn. She hasn’t been facing quite as tough of company as some of her competitors but she has hit the board 3 of her 4 starts this year and brings the confidence of a win last out. Geroux lands in the saddle and he has been very effective over this turf course. #1 Annulment is getting some class relief here, she is proven at this distance and hopefully can good position out of the gate from the 1 post. #5 Industrial Policy is also exiting stakes company and barn is 38% at Keeneland so far.

    $.50 Trifecta Box

    #1 Annulment, #2 Patsy’s Holiday, #4 Two to Tango, #5 Industrial Policy

    Cost $12

    Race 8

    #10 Runway Blvd. is making first start off the claim for barn that gets 28% with this type. Filly adds blinkers and Lanerie. #9 Pi is making a significant drop in class and barn is 27% this year. Worth a look. #4 Belisama is also dropping and adding blinkers.

    $.10 Superfecta Box

    #1Sab’s Devil, #4 Belisama, #7 Aveory’s T N T’s, #9 Pi, #10 Runway Blvd.

    Cost $12





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