Expert Picks - Kim Nelson

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Let our experts help you handicap the day's races at Keeneland.

Please note that selections typically are available about 48 hours in advance of the race.

E.g., December 1

    Kim Nelson

    Kim has been involved with horses all her life. She has worked with pregnant mares, prepping yearlings, managed lay-up barns, exercise rider, assistant trainer and has trained a few of her own horses. She is also very involved in the placement of retired thoroughbreds once their racing careers are over. Kim worked as a handicapper for the Daily Racing form for 5 years before starting her work with Keeneland.

    Sunday, October 18, 2015

    Race 1

    #8 Lost in Success can boast the best last Beyer figure and looks capable of a gate to wire win here. #3Tothyownsilf, like the consistent numbers this mare has, she picks up regular paychecks and could boost exotics. #5 Gracee Goo hasn’t seen the winners circle this year but she is dropping a bit in class here and should be competitive.

    $.50 Trifecta Box

    #1 So Many Dreams, #3 Tothyownself, #5 Gracee Goo, #8 Lost in Success

    Cost $12


    Race 2

    #6 Guessed Right exits a win at Churchill for $16K and brings a strong Beyer number from that race. #4 Lucy’s Revenge moves back to the dirt after a couple of turf efforts with some tough company. Class relief should make her a player here. #1 Spoonfulofsugar has never won on the dirt but looks like she could land share at this level.

    $2 Exacta Box

    #4 Lucy’s Revenge, #6 Guessed Right

    Cost $4


    Race 3

    #2 Gimmeadrink hasn’t missed a check in 7 starts this year including 5 wins. His last 4 starts have been over the synthetic at Arlington but his dirt form is just as good. #8 Bad Student a winner here for $10K on 10/4/15 is looking for the hat trick. Definitely a player in this field. #4 It’ll Be Fine is another bringing back to back wins and fits here.

    $.50 Trifecta Box

    31 Dynabeaver, #2 Gimmeadrink, #4 It’ll Be Fine, #8 Bad Student

    Cost $12


    Race 4

    #6 Za Approval has been facing Graded Stakes company in all but 1 of his 8 starts this year. He has hit the board 5 of 8 of those starts. He has had a short freshener and the softer company should suit him here. #8 Grand Contender just missed last time for $50K at Churchill. Consistent performer looks dangerous with these. #1 Decisive Moment has enough early foot to suggest he can hold on for part at the mile distance.

    $.50 Trifecta Box

    #1 Decisive Moment, #6 Za Approval, #7 One Touch, #8 Grand Contender

    Cost $12


    Race 5

    #3 Cowboy Rhythm is making his 2nd career start and brings a solid worktab. Ran third to Union Jackson in that race who was a very impressive winner here at Keeneland earlier in the meet. #7 Rock Star Status has a bit more bottom under him with 3 starts but has been the beaten favorite in all 3 starts. The stretch out in distance could help him find the winners circle. #4 First Growth deserves a look with these as does #8 Saneem who are both very well bred.

    $.50 Trifecta Box

    #3 Cowboy Rhythm, #7 Rock Star Status, #4 First Growth, #8 Saneem

    Cost $12


    Race 6

    #3 Queen Pauline was $500K weanling purchase by Stonestreet Stables and the Tapit filly has been working like she was worth the price. The Asmussen barn is having a good meet and like this filly to win first time out. #9 Beach Walk was $435K September Keeneland graduate and makes her first start for the Catalano barn. Sharp works for this filly also. #6 Scatnap is making her debut for the Tomlinson barn. Barn has a strong percentage with firsters. Will also take the 1 and 1A as both are legitimate contenders and its 2 for 1.

    $.50 Trifecta box

    #3 Queen Pauline, #1 Twirl Girl, #6 Scatnap, #9 Beach Walk

    Cost $12


    Race 7

    #6 Cassatt is coming off the layoff and this is obviously a good place to start for her year-end campaign. Trainer Jones has placed this talented filly in perfect spots and trust he has her right here. Works are sharp and she looks good for the win. #3You Bought Her, has been keeping tough company this year and comes in off a short freshening. This distance is right for her and expect a big effort. #7 Spring Included, throw out the last one, she obviously didn’t care for Kentucky Downs, and form is quite impressive. #4 Wind Chill Factor, have to give this filly a look. Four out 5 wins last year with stakes company. She comes over fresh with a solid work tab.

    $.50 Trifecta box

    #3 You Bought Her, #4 Wind Chill Factor, #6 Cassatt, #7 Spring Included

    Cost $12


    Race 8

    #8 Ceisteach looks to have the stamina to keep herself close to the lead and out of trouble in this field going the distance of 1 ½ miles. She tired in her last but was coming off a bit of break and probably needed that one. #3 Interject has rounded in to good form since moving to the turf and this distance should suit her. #1 Kitten’s Point won the Grade 3 Bewitch stakes here last spring at this distance and definitely presents a threat. #6 Trophee is a consistent performer that draws Leparoux to the saddle.

    $.50 Trifecta Box

    #1 Kittens Point, #3 Interject, #6 Trophee, #8 Ceisteach

    Cost $12


    Race 9

    #2 Moonlit Meteor just missed at this level opening day in the mud. Expect him to come back tough here. #10 Oltre’ Oro is making first star off the claim for the Sharp barn. He exits a nice win at Saratoga. #7 Wild Target is also making his first start off the claim and drops slightly in class. #4 C’Mon Cat has been competitive with similar in recent form.

    $.50 Trifecta Box

    #2 Moonlight Meteor, #4 C’Mon Cat, #7 Wild Target, #10 Oltre’ Oro

    Cost $12




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