Expert Picks - Jeremy Plonk

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Sunday, October 15, 2017

    Jeremy Plonk

    Jeremy Plonk has worked in the racing industry professionally for 23 years and has been a statistical consultant to Keeneland, Del Mar and Oaklawn Park, as well as NBC Sports and ESPN. He has been a national racing columnist for ESPN.com and Daily Racing Form and is the owner of Horse Player NOW, creator of the Night School national fan education program. A former chart caller for Equibase, he continues to be a public handicapper in the Horse Player NOW BUZZ report.


    Sunday, October 15, 2017

    Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Sunday, October 15     

     

    What to Watch for Today: We’re going to break format today and try to tackle the 15 takeout pick five wager on races 5-9. It’s the best bet in racing today with a 50-cent minimum and chance to hit a lot for a little. There are 103,680 possible combinations in today’s sequence if all fields go with their maximum entries, so that means bigger payoffs for those able to solve the puzzle!

     

    **NEW** Updated analysis: Follow @BetKeeneland on Twitter or go to the Keeneland.com live racing page to get my live podcast reports at 10 minutes to post for each race of the meet, including how horses look pre-race, overlays/underlays, track tendencies and more. Miss them live? Each report will be immediately archived for your convenience.

     

    Today’s Keeneland NOW live podcast: Join Caton Bredar and me from noon-12:30 pm ET as we preview the entire day’s action in a 30-minute daily preview at Keeneland.com (http://www.keeneland.com/racing/racing-live-coverage). Miss the live premiere? Get the archive immediate thereafter with a link from @BetKeeneland on Twitter or at the live racing page at Keeneland.com.

     

    Weather: Rain is in the forecast with a 70% chance of showers so keep an eye on the conditions as we near post time at 1:05 pm ET.

                                                  

    Today’s Pick Five Approach: Here’s how I’m going after the sequence this afternoon.

     

    Race 5: Twelve horses are entered with also-eligibles. The majority of players will use several in there for two reasons: One, it’s a large field size; Two, it’s the opening leg of the wager and their mentality is to stay alive for excitement by using more horses. Remember, it pays the same – $0 – whether you bust in the first or last leg. Don’t let emotion get in the way of your ticket.construction. This race runs through 14-Swarm. He’s a single in that situation, full field and first leg or not.

     

    Race 6: Nine horses are entered. On the flipside, this field size will entice some to narrow, but it’s actually a very competitive race. I’ll spread the net with 3-Brielle’s Appeal, 4-Miss Vicki, 5-Conquest Sarahstar, 6-Mongolian Shopper, 7-Tizahandful and 8-Kaylen’s Revenge.

     

    Race 7: Ten horses are entered. 5-Malibu Treasure looks best of those who have run and first-timers 6-Hey Paige and 4-Persephone’s Dawn appeal to me as well. We’ll use that trio.

     

    Race 8: Twelve horses are entered with also-eligibles. This is another potential spread race for many, and I can’t argue so much with that premise. 1-No Fault, 4-Corby, 7-Summer Luck, 10-Last Promise Kept, 11-Blue Collar and 12-La Sola Ranger all are in my mix, though wide post draws could impact some of them to be sure.

     

    Race 9: Eight horses are entered. This will be where most people try to find a single because of two reasons: One, it’s the smallest field size; Two, it’s the final leg of the wager and they’ll just be happy to be alive to any payout horse having overspent their budget in earlier races for a false sense of “safety.” I’ll be covered with 6-Girls Know Best and 5-Angelo’s Ashes as the keys.

     

    My pick five play: 1x6x3x6x2 in terms of number of horses in each leg used for a $108 play.

     

    My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (http://www.keeneland.com/racing/handicappers-consensus). Also look for final, up to the minute adjustments by following @BetKeeneland as I live Tweet throughout the card.

     

    Feel free to drop me an E-mail anytime at Jeremy@Horseplayernow.com.

Sunday, October 15, 2017

 

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