Expert Picks - Jeremy Plonk

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    Jeremy Plonk

    Jeremy Plonk has worked in the racing industry professionally for 21 years and has been a statistical consultant to Keeneland, Del Mar and Oaklawn Park, as well as NBC Sports and ESPN. He has been a national racing columnist for and Daily Racing Form and is the owner of Horse Player NOW, creator of the Night School national fan education program. A former chart caller for Equibase, he continues to be a public handicapper in the Horse Player NOW BUZZ report.

    Friday, October 30, 2015


    Jeremy Plonk's Breeders' Cup Keys for Friday, Oct. 30


    In this space we look at the races at Keeneland all season, and today we get a Breeders' Cup local unveiling that's been three decades in the making. I'll share with you the key stats and trends for each of the Friday four-pack of BC events today.


    Juvenile Turf


    Jockeys Frankie Dettori (3) and Ryan Moore (2) have accounted for 5 of the last 7 Juvenile Turf scores.


    4 straight Juvenile Turf winners had raced in Europe at least once prior, including globetrotter Hootenanny a year ago for Wesley Ward.


    The Juvenile Turf has boasted full gates of 12-14 starters every year of its existance.


    Juvenile Turf favorites have lost 5 straight since Pounced tallied in 2009 as the 2-1 choice.


    Only once in its 8 editions has the Juvenile Turf $1 exacta paid more than $100.


    Dirt Mile

    Goldencents’ popular win last year at 3-5 snapped a 6-year skid where Dirt Mile had favorites had finished out of the money.


    Following Tapiture’s runner-up a year ago, 3-year-olds now have landed in the Dirt Mile trifecta each of the last 7 years.


    In its 8 renewals, only Furthest Land (’09) has won this race after capturing his final prep race.


    The only Dirt Mile held around 2 turns outside of Santa Anita came in the 2007 inaugural at Monmouth Park. Churchill Downs’ 2010 and 2011 editions were around 1 turn..


    $25.90 average winning mutuel makes the Dirt Mile second-highest among all Breeders’ Cup divisions – only behind the Classic ($27.76).



    Juvenile Fillies Turf


    The Americans have held serve by winning 5 of the 7 editions of this race.


    Belmont’s Miss Grillo Stakes has produced a Juvenile Fillies Turf exacta finisher in 6 of its 7 renewals, including last year’s winner Lady Eli.


    Trainer Chad Brown has started horses in 5 editions of this race and from those owns 2 wins and 2 runner-up finishes.


    The pacesetter has held on for a piece of the superfecta 5 of the 7 years this race has been contested, but has yet to win.


    The $1 superfecta average in the Juvenile Fillies Turf has been a whopping $11,228.66 – largest of any of the BC Friday races and second-largest of any BC turf event (trails only the Mile).





    4 straight Distaff winners have been 5-2 or less on the tote. In fact, 19 of 31 Distaff winners all-time have been 5-2 or less.


    Of the 5 largest upsets in Distaff history, 3 have come in Kentucky-hosted events: Spain (record $113.80, 2000); One Dreamer ($47.10, 1994); and Round Pound ($29.80, 2006).


    Distaff has the lowest $1 exacta ($60.63) and $1 superfecta ($3257.13) averages of any Breeders’ Cup division all-time.


    3-year-olds have dotted the Distaff exacta five consecutive years, including back-to-back winners Beholder (’13) and Untapable (’14).


    Since back-to-back wire jobs in 2002 and 2003, the Distaff has been won on the front end only once in the past 11 years (Royal Delta, 2012).


    The Distaff winning margin hasn’t been under 1-1/2 lengths in the past 7 editions since Ginger Punch scored by a neck in 2007.




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