Jeremy Plonk

Jeremy Plonk has worked in the racing industry professionally for 20 years and has been a statistical consultant to Keeneland, Del Mar and Oaklawn Park, as well as NBC Sports and ESPN. He has been a national racing columnist for ESPN.com and Daily Racing Form and is the owner of Horse Player NOW, creators of the Night School national fan education program. A former chart caller for Equibase, he continues to be a public handicapper in the Horse Player NOW BUZZ report.




Thursday, April 4, 2013

JEREMY PLONK'S 2013 SPRING MEET STATISTICAL PREVIEW (Part 2 of 2)

 

KEENELAND TRAINER ANGLES

Tom Amoss: 17 of his 25 Kee Polytrack wins have come in starter allowance, claiming or maiden claiming races. 21 of those 25 wins are comprised almost exclusively of sprint scores.

Rusty Arnold: More than half (28 of 53) of his Kee wins since Fall 2006 have been maiden breakers. He’s been been a 7-furlong ace with 18 wins at the distance in the Poly era (only Ken McPeek has more with 20 at the distance).

Steve Asmussen: 12 of his 24 Kee Polytrack wins have come in Spring Meet 2YO dashes, but note only 2 of those baby race tallies have come since 2009. He’s never won more than 5 races at any Keeneland meet in the Poly era.

Chad Brown: Won 6 races here in 2011 Spring Meet, but only 1 tally in ’12 Spring stand (on turf). No synthetic surface wins since April 2011.

Bret Calhoun: Of his 17 local wins since Fall 2006, only 4 have come in Spring Meets and none during 2012 Spring stand.

David Carroll: 9 of his 10 all-time Kee Poly wins have been maiden breakers. Only non-maiden to win on Poly was G1 Spinster champ Acoma.

Mark Casse: Won 3 races on the Polytrack at Keeneland last year, all in route races.

Wayne Catalano: More prevalent in the Fall, where 2 6 of his 35 Kee wins have come.

Christophe Clement: Has won at least 3 Kee Spring Meet races in 2009, ’10, ’11 and ’12 with those 18 scores split nicely 10 on Poly, 8 on turf. 16 of those 18 wins were allowance/stakes.

Bob Hess Jr: 7 of his 9 Kee Poly wins have come during Spring meets, and note his last 2 wins here have come with Poly sprinters exiting turf route preps. Kent Desormeaux has ridden all 9.

Eddie Kenneally: Stronger in Fall with 21 of his 31 Kee wins during that stand since ’06 Fall. 6 of his 10 Spring wins (all on Poly) have been maiden breakers.

Charlie Lopresti: The price secret is out. Averaged 5-1 on Kee winners from 2007-‘11, but just 5-2 last year on his 7 local scores.

D. Wayne Lukas: Only 4 of 16 Kee Poly wins during Spring meets. Similar 12-4 spread in Poly sprints vs. routes. Broken 3 maidens here with offspring of Unbridled’s Song.

Mike Maker: 60 of his 63 Kee wins since Fall ’06 have been on Polytrack. 32 claiming wins, 48 in either claiming, starter allowance or maiden claiming. Only 7 wins at 6 furlongs or less. 37 Polytrack route wins. 44 wins for Ken Ramsey.

Steve Margolis: 11 of 14 Kee wins since Fall ’06 during Fall Meets. 1 Spring win since ’09.

Michael Matz: More effective in Spring, where 17 of his 24 Kee wins since Fall ’06 have come. 10 maiden breakers, 9 allowance wins. 15 of 24 victories in route races. Only 3 shorter than 7F.

Shug McGaughey: At least 3 wins in 5 of last 6 Spring Meets. 6 of his 7 wins in Spring ’11-’12 were on turf. 14 of his 19 Poly wins in routes.  11 of 19 Poly winners prepped on turf. 5 of those Poly wins w/ Giant’s Causeway offspring.

Andrew McKeever: Popped 5 wins last Spring Meet out of nowhere, 4 of those coming in a 3-day span. Beware if he wins 1 he may get hot.

Kiaran McLaughlin: 9 of his 13 Spring meet Poly wins have come in long sprints (6.5-7F). Only 3 of 13 Poly winners prepped on dirt (8 turf, 2 FTS). Zero Kee wins since Spring ’10 meet!

Kenny McPeek: 98 Kee wins since Fall ’06, 84 on Poly and 14 on turf – but 25 of his last 27 Spring Meet wins have been on Poly. Success with offspring of Bernstein and Speightstown on Poly.  33 turf-to-Poly wins, 25 Poly prepped, 19 dirt prepped, 7 first-time starters. 46 Poly route wins, 38 sprints. Only 8 of his 38 Poly sprint wins came with horses shortening back from 2-turn prep. Of his 40 Spring wins since ‘07, only 1 over 9-1 odds and 5 above 5-1.

Darrin Miller: 11 of his 13 career Kee Poly wins have been in sprints.

Graham Motion: Won 5 races last Spring, a move forward for barn whose 39 of 58 Kee wins since Fall ’06 have come in Fall meets. 19 Spring wins during span include 11 allowances/5 stakes. 8 of those 19 winners were favorites. All 13 Spring wins on Poly at 7F-plus, 9 in routes.

Bill Mott: Surprisingly shut out on Kee Poly in Spring ’12 meet and only 1 win by Al Khali on turf. No Spring stakes wins since ’09, when taking 3. Only 1 of his 14 Spring Kee Poly wins prepped on GP turf. Strong success with sire Empire Maker at Kee on Poly & turf.

Todd Pletcher: Seen his Kee Spring wins total drop last 3 years from 8 to 6 to 4 last season. Strong Poly success with Giant’s Causeway, Distorted Humor, Tale of the Cat, Unbridled’s Song, Maria’s Mon offspring. 63 Kee Poly wins evenly distributed among 18 dirt preppers, 16 turf and 15 dirt (14 first-time starters). All 45 wins during Spring meets since ’07 have come in allowance, maiden special weight or stakes.

Tom Proctor: 8 of his 11 Spring Meet wins since 2008 have come on the turf. 10 of his 15

Eric Reed: 16 of his 17 Kee wins since Fall ’06 have come on the Polytrack – 11 sprints, 5 routes. 11 of 17 wins in claiming, maiden claiming or starter allowance. Once a big price threat who averaged 10-1 on first 13 wins, the public covers now – last 4 winners 3/1 or less.

Dale Romans: Only 7 of his 30 Kee wins since Fall ’06 have come in Spring meets. Only 2 Spring wins since ’09 came in pair of stakes last Spring with Dullahan & Silver Max.

Merrill Scherer: Won at least 2 Spring Meet races from ’07-’11 before being shut out last Spring. 11 of his 14 Spring Meet wins have come in Polytrack claiming races and 12 of those 14 wins came in sprints. 6 wins were turf-to-Polytrack moves from Fair Grounds.

Jonathan Sheppard: Shocking that endurance barn has seen 11 of its 13 Kee Poly winners come in sprints. In fact, only 2 route wins came by same horse in ’09-‘10. Only 2 turf-to-Poly winners on surface changes. At least 1 Kee Spring meet turf winner each of last 6 years,

Philip Sims: Razor-sharp 13 wins on Kee Polytrack at the 7-furlong distance.

Al Stall Jr.: 27 of 29 Kee wins since Fall ’06 have come on Polytrack, 2 on turf. Much stronger in Kee Fall Meets (22 wins) vs. Spring (7 wins). Top Claiborne stallion for him on Kee Poly has been Arch, teaming for 3 wins.

Dallas Stewart: Shut out at Kee in both 2012 meets and only 3 local wins since ’09. 20 of 23 career Kee Poly wins were in sprints.

Mike Stidham: Huge 2012 Spring meet with 5 wins, including 2 turf stakes. 3 Poly wins last spring were all turf preppers changing surface. 5 wins last spring matched his total for Spring meets from 2007-’11.

John Terranova: Won 2 races at 2010 Spring and 2011 Spring meets all with front-running horses in sprint races (two were first-time starters, 1 2YO & 1 3YO). Shut out in 2012.

Wesley Ward: 50 of his 57 all-time Polytrack wins have come in sprint races, including 17 scores in Spring Meet 2YO dashes. 12 of those 17 baby race winners were favorites.

George Weaver: Won 2 races at 2010 Spring and 2011 Spring meets all with front-running horses in sprint races (two were first-time starters, 1 2YO & 1 3YO). Shut out in 2012.

Ian Wilkes: 5 of his 9 Kee Poly Spring meet winners have been maiden breakers. 7 of those 9 wins came in sprints. 7 of those 9 winners exited Gulfstream dirt preps.

-end-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pages