Expert Picks - Jeremy Plonk

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E.g., 2014-07-25

    Jeremy Plonk

    Jeremy Plonk has worked in the racing industry professionally for 20 years and has been a statistical consultant to Keeneland, Del Mar and Oaklawn Park, as well as NBC Sports and ESPN. He has been a national racing columnist for ESPN.com and Daily Racing Form and is the owner of Horse Player NOW, creators of the Night School national fan education program. A former chart caller for Equibase, he continues to be a public handicapper in the Horse Player NOW BUZZ report.


    Wednesday, April 2, 2014

    Jeremy Plonk's Fall Meet Preview

    Part 1 of 2: "BY THE NUMBERS"

    With Friday’s opening day 48 hours away, you know I can’t help myself but to be thinking numerically. The numbers never lie, they say, although the way we twist and turn them can sometimes be our own undoing. I’ll preview the upcoming Spring Meet in two parts. First, today we’ll look at the Keeneland season by the numbers. Tomorrow, we’ll discuss money management approaches at attacking the races here, something new in this column space but tremendously important.

    A quick reminder that live video and chats return to Keeneland.com on Friday. Play the races alongside me in real time each day. Set your bookmark: http://www.keeneland.com/racing/racing-live-coverage.

    Be sure to read my Horse Player NOW Magazine cover story “Why Keeneland May Frustrate, But Always Fascinates” in the debut issue of my digital magazine that was unveiled Tuesday. You can find it free, here: http://issuu.com/horseplayernow/docs/hpnowmag_april2014.

    Now, let’s paint this meet by numbers!

    57

    Percent of 2-year-old baby races won by trainer Wesley Ward at the past two Keeneland Spring Meets. His barn owns 8 wins in the last 14 offerings.

    $17

    Average $2 win return in maiden claiming races all-time in Spring Meets, with favorites winning 26.9%.

    $14.48

    Average $2 win return at all levels all-time in Spring Meets, with favorites winning 31%.

    51

    Number of Spring Meet turf stakes winners exiting a turf prep – from 55 races – since 2007.

    63

    Spring Meet Polytrack Stakes all-time, which have been evenly won by horses prepping on dirt 23 times, turf 22 times and synthetic 18 times.

    800

    Total Spring Meet races on the Polytrack all-time.

    246

    Number of those 800 Spring Meet Poly races won by the race’s half-mile leader.

    44

    Career record number of Spring Meet Polytrack wins by a trainer – held by Mike Maker, just one more than Wesley Ward’s 43 and 4 more than Ken McPeek’s 40.

    $118

    Average $2 exacta payoff in Spring Meet Polytrack races.

    $286.99

    Average DIME superfecta payoff in Spring Meet Polytrack races.

    $449.56

    Average $1 trifecta payoff in Spring Meet Polytrack races.

    44.8

    Percent of 2013 Spring Meet sprint races on Polytrack won by horses exiting a route prep (1 mile or longer). This total excludes the 2YO baby dashes.

    26.8

    Percent of 2013 Spring Meet route races on Polytrack won by horses exiting a sprint prep (shorter than 1 mile).

    52.6

    Percent of turf races at 2013 Spring Meet won by horses who last prepped at Gulfstream Park. {No other circuit produced more than 2 of the 19 winners.}

    5.3

    Percent of Spring Meet races in Polytrack era won by horses 20-1 or more (54 out of 1013).

    52

    Different trainers have trained those 54 longshot winners of 20-1 or more in Spring Meets. Only Larry Lay and Greg Fox have popped more than one upset of that size (each with 2).

    6

    Number of 20-1 or more upsets in Spring Meets posted by jockey James Graham, most of any rider. Corey Lanerie and Robby Albarado each have turned 5 such tricks.

    3

    Number of Spring Meet Polytrack winners sired by Kitten’s Joy in each of the past two seasons -- though people haven’t stopped betting his offspring with memories of his 9-win meet in Spring 2011.

    25

    Wins by owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey at the 2013 Spring Meet, a single-season record – average odds 5-2 with 15 of those favored.

    2

    Days until opening day! We'll see you tomorrow with Part 2 of our preview. Then be sure to check out this blogspace every racing day for specific stats and trends for key races all day long!

    Jeremy Plonk is owner of Horse Player NOW, creators of the Night School online national fan education and player development program. You can attend Night School FREE every Tuesday at 8:30 pm ET and learn from the experts throughout the industry.

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