Jeremy Plonk

Jeremy Plonk has worked in the racing industry professionally for 20 years and has been a statistical consultant to Keeneland, Del Mar and Oaklawn Park, as well as NBC Sports and ESPN. He has been a national racing columnist for ESPN.com and Daily Racing Form and is the owner of Horse Player NOW, creators of the Night School national fan education program. A former chart caller for Equibase, he continues to be a public handicapper in the Horse Player NOW BUZZ report.




Wednesday, April 3, 2013

JEREMY PLONK'S 2013 SPRING MEET STATISTICAL PREVIEW (Part 1 of 2)

2012 SPRING MEET IN REWIND

On the main track, Gulfstream shippers (25 wins) narrowly edged Fair Grounds shippers (20), while Turfway was next-best (16) …  Dirt-preppers won 38 of 108 main track races, best of any surface, followed by turf preppers (32) and synthetic preppers (28). First-time starters accounted for 10 winners … On the turf, Gulfstream shippers won 17 times from 35 races offered with Fair Grounds invaders next-best with 5 turf wins ... Shug McGaughey paced all turf trainers with 4 Spring Meet ‘12 wins on the lawn ... Julien Leparoux piloted 9 grass winners to lead all jockeys as expected, but James Graham was next-best with a solid 4 turf wins at the meet ... Of the 7 juvenile dashes offered at 4-1/2 furlongs, trainer Wesley Ward won 3 times … All 7 baby race winners at the stand had a local Keeneland work prior, which means 50 of 53 baby race winners all-time on the Keeneland Polytrack during Spring Meets had a local workout most recently.

 

ALL-TIME KEENELAND POLTRACK AVERAGE PAYOFFS

Fall 2006-present (1597 races)

Avg $2 win:                         $15.44

Avg $2 exacta:                   $126.44

Avg $1 trifecta:                  $520.37

Avg $1 superfecta:          $3117.11

 

Avg field size: 9.52 starters per race

 

ALL SPRING MEET POLY RACES

POLYTRACK, AVERAGE SPRING MEET WINNING ODDS:  6.52-to-1

POLYTRACK, SPRING MEET WINNING FAVORITES: 55-for-685 (29%)

POLYTRACK, SPRING MEET TOP PREP LOCALES (685 races):

165-Gulfstream

108-Fair Grounds

102-Turfway

31-Tampa Bay Downs

24-Oaklawn

24-Santa Anita

20-Churchill Downs (layoffs from fall)

8-Aqueduct

POLYTRACK, SPRING MEET MOST WINS BY TRAINERS:

35-Kenny McPeek

34-Wesley Ward

33-Todd Pletcher

23-Mike Maker

18-Rusty Arnold

15-Steve Asmussen

14-Merrill Scherer

14-Tom Amoss

14-Michael Matz

14-Bill Mott

13-Graham Motion

13-Kiaran McLaughlin

11-Shug McGaughey

10-Christophe Clement

10-Eddie Kenneally

10-Dallas Stewart

9-Charlie Lopresti

9-Andrew McKeever

9-Phil Simms

9-Ian Wilkes

POLYTRACK, SPRING MEET MOST WINS BY JOCKEYS:

87-Julien Leparoux

61-Kent Desormeaux

54-Garrett Gomez

43-Robby Albarado

41-John Velazquez

33-Miguel Mena

30-Shaun Bridgmohan

30-Javier Castellano

29-James Graham

24-Edgar Prado

21-Alan Garcia

 

 

ALL SPRING MEET TURF RACES

TURF, AVERAGE SPRING MEET WINNING ODDS:  5.89-to-1

TURF, SPRING MEET WINNING FAVORITES: 55-for-178 (31%)

TURF, SPRING MEET TOP PREP LOCALES:

80-Gulfstream

15-Fair Grounds

11-Tampa Bay Downs

9-Churchill (layoffs from fall)

8-Turfway

6-Santa Anita

TURF, SPRING MEET MOST WINS BY TRAINERS:

14-Roger Attfield

13-Bill Mott

12-Todd Pletcher

11-Shug McGaughey

10-Christophe Clement

9-Jonathan Sheppard

8-Tom Proctor

6-Rusty Arnold

6-Graham Motion

TURF, SPRING MEET MOST WINS BY JOCKEYS:

30-Julien Leparoux

21-Garrett Gomez

16-John Velazquez

15-Javier Castellano

10-Alan Garcia

10-Edgar Prado

8-Robby Albarado

8-Kent Desormeaux

 

ALL-TIME LEADING POLY SIRES AT KEENELAND BY WINS

30-Unbridled’s Song 27-Giant’s Causeway 25-Smart Strike 24-Distorted Humor 23-Tale of the Cat 22-Dynaformer 22-Kitten’s Joy 18-AP Indy 17-Mr. Greeley 17-Pulpit 17-Tiznow 16-Empire Maker 16-Sky Mesa 16-Storm Cat 15-Medaglia d’Oro 14-Forest Wildcat 14-Grand Slam 14-Indian Charlie 14-Maria’s Mon 14-Pure Prize 13-Fusaichi Pegasus 13-Ghostzapper 12-Bernstein 12-Broken Vow 12-Catienus 12-More Than Ready 12-Stormy Atlantic 12-Thunder Gulch

11-Cherokee Run 11-Forestry 11-Royal Academy 11-Successful Appeal 10-Langfuhr 10-Lemon Drop Kid 10-Mutakkdim 10-Speightstown 10-Trippi 10-Yankee Gentleman 9-Gulch 9-Lion Heart 9-War Chant 9-Yes It’s True 8-Arch 8-Cat Thief 8-Fire Star Day 8-Hennessy 8-Johannesburg 8-Not For Love 8-Officer 8-Pleasant Tap 8-Point Given 8-Seeking the Gold 8-Skip Away 8-Songandaprayer

Check back Thursday morning for Part 2 of the Preseason blogs, and then Friday's opening day Polycapping stats blog that takes a look at each race from an analytical perspective will be posted later in the day Thursday to give you a headstart on Friday's card!

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