Handicapper blogs

You are here

Race Date: 
Saturday, October 3, 2015
Handicapper's Name: 
Ellis Starr

Race #7

First Lady Stakes

#1 Crowley's Law - Fair odds 3/1

#3 She's Not Here - Fair odds 7/2

#11 Tepin - Fair odds 4/1

#2 Kiss Moon - Fair odds 9/2

#9 Sky Treasure - Fair odds 9/2

Exacta: Box 1,2,3,9,11

You can also consider a trifecta and superfecta box among those 5 horses.

Crowley's Law shipped to run in the U.S. for the first time last month, a fine 3rd of 9 finish in the Noble Damsel Stakes in New York that sets her up nicely for an even bigger effort here. She finished 2nd in a Group 3 races in June and was close in two more before that start last month, in which she ran into a hot pace very well. Although 3rd and beaten a length for the win, she ran the last 1/4 mile in a strong 22.8 seconds, and going from the seven post last out to the rail here could be formidable if she improves off that effort. She's Not Here posted the upset twice at Del Mar in two races including the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon Stakes, both with Smith riding, who travels to Kentucky to ride her again. She has run three HUGE races in her last 3 turf  tries, with 109, 108 and 106 Equibase figures, not as good as the 114 Crowley's Law earned last month but darn good and consistent, so she could get another graded stakes win here. Tepin would be more highly rated if not for getting the 11 post at this mile trip, combined with the fact she has done her best running this year when 4th or closer in the early stages. She will have to use some energy, perhaps a lot, to get in close to the rail before the turn, and that has potential to cost her late. Still, she is the ONLY grade 1 winner in the field and her 108, 121, 112, 117 and 106 figure efforts this year are also very consistent and repeatable. Kiss Moon has won 2 of her last 3, both stakes, including at this mile trip at Kentucky Downs last month. Lanerie was up for both wins and rides back and she too gets a good ground saving inside post so could be in position to win again after saving ground. Sky Treasure won the Grade 2 Nassau Stakes in May at this mile trip with a lower than par 100 figure BUT two later won at Kentucky Downs with a 107 figure. She's trained by Mark Casse same as Tepin so Leparoux moving from her to Tepin is no big deal, as is the jockey change to Saez. In short, count her in with a shot to be in the mix at the end as well.




Keeneland Association, Inc. 4201 Versailles Road
Lexington, Kentucky 40510
Telephone: (859) 254-3412 Toll Free: (800) 456-3412 Fax: (859) 255-2484

©1999-2015 Keeneland Association, Inc. All Rights Reserved