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Race Date: 
Wednesday, October 21, 2015
Handicapper's Name: 
Ellis Starr

Race #8 - Rating = 2

#1 Defer Heaven - Fair odds 2/1
#6 Abbaa - Fair odds 3/1
#5 Rockin Donovan - Fair odds 7/2
#7 Plunder - Fair odds 7/2
Exacta: Box 1,5,6,7 (The cost of this 4-horse exacta box is $12 at the $1 level and we win if any 2 of the 4 finish 1st and 2nd in any order).
Defer Heaven LOVES TO WIN RACES, with 10 victories in 21 career dirt races, including one just one race before last on 9/13. He likes to lead from the start and jockey Lanerie can get him out quickly from his rail draw. He's also 2 for 3 at Keeneland and was claimed out of his last race, a 3rd place finish here at Keeneland 19 days ago, by a trainer that doesn't start many but who does VERY good with those he does start, evidenced by a 7 for 32 record on the year.
Abbaa has finished 2nd in his last 2 races, both against higher level runners, and although he likes to lead early like the top pick I don't think they will get into a battle early so this one may be in a great spot in 2nd from the opening bell and still in contention at the end.
Rockin Donovan also drops in class, so even though his last six efforts have been poor he could move up by default, particularly for a trainer who has won with 25% of his starters this year. Plunder may be the one to pass them all if Defer Heaven and Abbaa battle for the early lead and tire. He closed from 4th to win one race before last and has been in the money (1st through 3rd) in 10 of 14 races this year, with his last win coming the only time today's jockey (Geroux) was aboard.

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