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Race Date: 
Sunday, October 4, 2015
Handicapper's Name: 
Ellis Starr

Race #9 - Spinster Stakes

#9 Frivolous - Fair odds 2/1
#4 Got Lucky - Fair odds 2/1
#3 Untapable - Fair odds 3/1

Exactas: 4,9 over 3,4,6,9
Trifecta: 4,9 over 3,4,6,9 over 3,4,6,9

I'm barely including Untapable, the 2014 Kentucky Oaks winner, as a win contender, and I'm not considering this year's Oaks winner, Lovely Maria, as a contender at all. Untapable is winless in 3 races since winning the Apple Blossom in April, losing ground in the last 8th of a mile in her last 3 and a shadow of the tremendous filly that won many races in a row last year versus three year olds. Lovely Maria finished 5th two back and 6th last out with no excuse, has tailed off and I don't see a return to form any time soon.

On the other hand, Frivolous not only continues to win graded stakes but opens at 9/2 odds. She won the G2 Fall City in November, the G2 Fleur de Lis in June and was 2nd in the G1 Delaware Handicap in July before an 8 length win in the Locust Grove last month, a great prep for this race. Jon Court rides her exceptionally well, she has won here at Keeneland and she's only been worse than 2nd one time at this 8 furlong trip in her career. Her only recent loss was when 2nd to Sheer Drama by 2 lengths, with Untapable finishing 3rd to Sheer Drama last out with no excuse, but Untapable opening at 9/5 here compared to 9/2 for Frivolous, not to mention Frivolous having earned 108, 110 and 106 Equibase Figures in her last 3 compared to 109, 113 and 105 figures for Untapable, more reasons the latter is no standout and is actually beatable but just the same I won't completely discount her chances like I will for Lovely Maria.

Got Lucky finished 2nd to Sheer Drama in the Personal Ensign on 8/29, beating Untapable for 2nd by a neck. She's won 3 of her last 5 and been 2nd in two other races, with competitive figures to Frivolous, and with Ortiz up for her runner-up effort last month and coming in from NY to ride here for Pletcher, she deserves a lot of respect as well.



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