What to Watch for Today: We close the curtain on the 2011 Fall Meet with a fantastic renewal of the G2 Fayette, featuring a showdown between well-known stars like Mission Impazible, Wise Dan and General Quarters, all who have visited the Keeneland winner’s circle in the past.
We'll see if James Graham and Kent Desormeaux can continue their hot ways after 4-win and 3-win days on Friday! Also Paul McGee looks to continue a red-hot closing week run with one starter today in Race 6. Watch the action for free with brilliant high definition live streaming at Keeneland.com’s Live Race Coverage page ( http://www.keeneland.com/racing/frames/livecoverage.aspx). Right next to the HD viewer, horseplayers also are treated to an all-day interactive handicapping chat in real time with me and my handicapping partner for closing day, Caton Bredar. Come ask your questions in real time and chat simultaneously with thousands of Keeneland racing fans. At the track? Great! Catch my up-to-the-minute selections just after the post parade each race by following us on Twitter from your mobile phone: http://twitter.com/keenelandracing. Weather: Sunny skies and 56-degee temperatures should make for a gorgeous closing day. For up-to-the-minute weather updates for Keeneland, including the track surface temperature and today’s maintenance, click: http://www.keeneland.com/racing/Lists/Scratches/AllItemsalt.aspx. Polycapping 101: In this section, we’ll get race and horse specific to help your handicapping. Maiden claimers sprint in Race 1 to open the card, and given the solid success of Hoosier Park runners at this class leve this meeting, keep an eye on Dawn Lane, making her first try for a claiming price. Pedigree-wise, first-time starter Euronfire has a sneaky-good bloodline to like this surface. Arboria will be a short price on the class drop and addition of blinkers for a Jonathan Sheppard barn that’s struggled this meet, including several horses who dropped for maiden claiming tags. Julien Leparoux not riding first timer Summer Kitten makes that one a play-against as well.
Turning to Race 2, the first seven basement-level $7500 claimers held at this Fall Meet were won by horses who shipped in from 7 different last-out locations, showing what a melting pot Keeneland is, even with the cheaper classes of races. Trainer Michelle Lovell had a visually stunning winner in the claiming ranks here on Thursday and may have her barn on the brink of a run, so beware Lukey’s La Tee Da in her second start of the meet. Da Nella is a horse to watch on pedigree as sire Da Stoops doesn’t have many runners at Keeneland, but his offspring have run well on the Del Mar Polytrack, and grandsire Distorted Humor is one of the great Poly sprint influences at Keeneland. Shananie’s Honor invades from Presque Isle for the same connections (J. Michael Baird, Leandro Goncalves) that teamed to win a $10,000 claimer at 28-1 odds this meet named Mister Monsieur, who also was fresh in from PID.
Claiming routes have been very formful this meet, so keep that in mind in Race 3. Through the first 11 of the stand, not a single winner was over 7-1 with an average winner of 4-1 odds. Nine of those 11 winners exited route preps and all 11 prepped at least at 7 furlongs or longer last time out. Trainer Mike Maker owns more claiming route wins on Poly (16) than any other trainer and has tallied a few more this meeting. He’ll look to add another with Deputy Darling.
Race 4 is a rare 2-year-old turf route at 1-1/8 miles. The trends won’t do us any good here, but do note that Goldrush Girl ran in the same Saratoga turf maiden Sept. 4 that produced Oct. 12 Keeneland turf route maiden winner Karlovy Vary. Goldrush Girl since has run a very good second on the main track here and should be a very deserving favorite. Pedigree-wise, don’t be surprised if Breeze Show improves off of a dismal debut on the main track. She adds blinkers and is bred top-and-bottom to like this local grass course. Trainer Andrew McKeever already upset the G3 Valley View on turf this meet at 43-1 with Daisy Devine, who made a successful surface switch to turf.
Horses running back second time at the meet dominated the non-winners of 2 lifetime claimers at the end of the 2010 Fall Meet and we haven’t had the chance to exploit that yet here in 2011. Extra love goes to “run-back” High On Kitten, the only horse in Race 5 who makes a second attempt of the meet. Certainly Spanish Empiress has lots to like by superb Poly route sire Empire Maker and trained by the aforementioned claiming route specialist Mike Maker. Black Tulip ran a winning race over this track in the Spring and merits respect for a Phil Sims barn that has been out-running its odds on many occasions this meet.
Allowance sprinters battle in Race 6, and we’ve seen a strong showing from Presque Isle Downs shippers in these races this Fall Meet, including 3 winners (as many as Arlington, Saratoga, Turfway and Belmont combined). A couple PID shippers who ran well but just missed at the meet could be dangerous here second time over the track, named Goshen Hawk and Corleone. Only 2 of the first 11 Poly allowance sprints at the meet were won by horses shortening from a route to a sprint, and half of this 12-horse field will try to press the accelerator and buck that trend.
Race 7 also is an allowance sprint at 7 furlongs, just like Race 6. Again, the stats lean toward those exiting sprint preps, which is good news if you want to try and beat likely favorite Winslow Homer, a big-name invader for Larry Jones who has not sprinted since 2009. Do note Homer’s daddy Unbridled’s Song is the leading all-time Keeneland Poly sire, so he just may take to the surface with flair. There’s no guesswork with A Diehl or Agastache when it comes to the surface, both have proven to have a strong affinity for the Polytrack.
A third-level turf allowance welcomes a full field in Race 8. Trainer Graham Motion (Deal Making) has won more Fall Meet turf allowances since 2006 than any other local trainer (tied with Bill Mott with 10 apiece). While Bergerac might look like a question at the 1-1/16 miles distance, note that since Fall 2006 his sire Rahy has sired a strong total of 6 local turf winners at distances up to 1-1/2 miles. Delaware turf invaders have had some success over the years in Fall Meet turf allowances and Noll Wallop looks like a major player on paper.
The Race 10 finale is for older maiden special weight sprinters and I’ll be looking for Tale of the Dance to be tough despite a long layoff. He was sharp here in the Spring and by sire Tale of the Cat is custom-built to run 7 furlongs over this Polytrack. It’s been a sensational meet breaking maidens for trainer Rusty Arnold, whose barn always has been rock-solid in 7 furlong local sprints, so beware Tycoon flying late.
Feature Race Play: The Grade 2 Fayette Handicap will be run for the sixth time in the Polytrack era and goes as the Race 9 feature on closing day. Wise Dan will try to keep it in the family when he’s the likely favorite for this $150,000 race. Last year, his older brother Successful Dan, captured the Fayette for the same jockey-trainer combo of Julien Leparoux and Charlie Lopresti.
Four of the previous five winners were horses who stalked between 3-1/2 and 6-1/2 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile. Deep closers and front-runners have had limited success here, though Ball Four did win on the front end in a 21-1 upset in 2008. The other 4 Fayette winners averaged just 4-1 odds, however, and were quite formful.
Mission Impazible was a debut winner at Keeneland way back when in the Spring of 2009 and since has earned nearly $1 million. He’ll have to overcome a wide post 12 to win, but his sire Unbridled’s Song has won more races on this track than any sire, and trainer Todd Pletcher has more Keeneland Polytrack stakes wins than anyone all-time with 10, including 3 during the Spring Meet earlier this year. Eight of those 10 Pletcher stakes wins were in route races.
General Quarters upset the 2009 Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes over this track, but is 1-for-14 since then, granted that a Grade 1 score in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic at Churchill, and with several hard-luck defeats and graded placings.
The 1-1/8 miles distance could separate many of these contenders, but it will help upstart Ioya Bigtime, by Dynaformer out of a Lord at War mare and bred to run all day on the Polytrack or turf. His win Oct. 8 at Keeneland was visually stirring at 1-1/8 miles. I’m tabbing him for the big upset at 20-1 in the morning line, but realize full well that it’s Wise Dan’s race to win or lose. Good luck on closing day!
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