KEENELAND SELECT WEEKEND WARRIOR 3/9/13
Discreet Dancer ran big off a one-year layoff, finishing strong after tracking a fast pace. If he can improve off that, look out. Fort Larned is going to be the heavy favorite but running an elongated sprint at a mile off a layoff is a tough challenge.
Bet #4 Discreet Dancer to win. Exactas key #4 with #3 Fort Larned, #2 Fort Loudon.
To win the race, I'll pick Flashback but the way to bet this is to find a horse that finish in the exacta instead of having the two favorites run 1-2. For me, that horse is Hear the Ghost. He made big improvement in his second start and he's bred to relish this stretchout to two turns.
Exactas key #5 with #2 Flashback, #3 Goldencents
Mystical Star has a class edge on this group but can she run big off a layoff. Well, she's trained by Christophe Clement, who excels in that area and she's well drawn in post 3.
Bet #3 Mystical Star to win, place. Exactas: key #3 with #4 Kya One, #5 Forces of Darkness, #12 Absolute Crackers.
Pletcher makes an interesting move in sending Verrazano here off two impressive wins. It's a demanding track and this colt has never been around two turns. Both could make this one vulnerable but I'm taking Pletcher's decision as a sign of confidence that his colt needs to pass a stern test.
Bet #6 Verrazano to win. Exactas: key #6 with #5 Dynamic Sky, #4 Java's War
Rose to Gold is the only graded-stakes winner in the field and in her first start off a layoff, she had a tough post. I'm betting she'll improve off that and she could win this at a decent price. Flashy Gray may go favored off that 95 Beyer but she's giving away a lot of experience and that's a tough challenge for a young filly.
Bet #3 Rose to Gold. Exactas: key #3 with #7 Sister Ginger, #8 Flashy Gray, #6 Broken Spell
Alternation has a tough post to overcome but I think he has a class edge over this group--plus he loves Oaklawn Park. Also, Alternation ran big off a layoff at Oaklawn last year at this time.
Bet #10 Alternation to win, place. Exactas: key #10 with #3 Cyber Secret, #4 Donoharm, #9 San Pablo
To me, Weekend Hideaway has played the tough schedule in this group and I like the fact that Ortiz picks up the mount.
Bet #4 Weekend Hideaway. Exactas: key #4 with #3 Whiskey Romeo, #5 Clawback
Not a great betting race with a small field and a favorite that looks unbeatable. Believe You Can is the pick to win off that four-year old debut.
Bet #6 Believe You Can to win. Exacta box #6 and #1 Imposing Grace
A similar story to the 7th race as Delauney looks like the winner at a short price. Gantry is a nice sprinter but he's never been able to beat Delauney so I'll box the exacta and hope he can finally turn the tables for a better price.
Exacta box #6 and #3