It's hard to believe on the other side of the 2023 spring racing season we'll be just one week away from the Kentucky Derby, but for now there's four weeks to go and a world of promise, fascination, and intrigue in between, and it all starts with a 10-race card to lead us off.

As of this typing, the biggest news on the card is who's not running, as the expected scratch of #11 Carl Spackler race 8, the Transylvania Stakes, affects not only all late multi-race wagers but also the $3 all-turf Pick 3 (races 6, 8, & 10). The loss of a potential single will return many to the drawing board.

Below are "hot trainers" with horses in today at Keeneland. These stats are for any track (obviously, since they have no stats at Keeneland) but ONLY include those trainers with a horse in today.

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All dials set to zero into opening day! 0/0 -% ROI. Below is my grid AFTER scratches.

1st Race

When it comes to maiden races in April at Keeneland, all you need is Horse Racing Nation's First-Time Power Ratings. 

 

 

Thankfully, I am here to tell you who the five-star horses are!

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#4 Baytown Admiral and #12 Nurcan get the designations in the lid lifter, but the former is both better drawn and a better morning line price, so we'll side with the Paul McEntee trainee whose dam has thrown a pair of two-year-old winners. Not for nothing, but Nurcan is by freshman sire Copper Bullet out of a mare who has already thrown a pair of two-year-old winners. If all the money goes to #3 Bledsoe (more than capable as a four star but potentially overbet being trainer by Wesley Ward) then I'd gladly use both 4 & 12 to start the early Pick 5.

PICKS: 4-12-3

2nd Race

Admittedly, the four-star horses are not as good as the five-star (see tweet embedded in race 1 above for five-star stats), but four is enough to think #2 Contrive fits with these, as Stonestreet saw fit to go to $160,000 on this daughter of Liam's Map, and we have seen this move before from trainer Todd Pletcher debuting well-meant three-year-olds at the Keeneland spring meeting.

None of the other debut runners intrigue, as they all have less than four stars, and plenty of runners have races that fit, including #15 Afternoon Tea, who would need to draw in but would be a big threat if so of that menacing middle move on debut. #8 Beach Walkn was left for dead early on debut but showed a lot fight late and should improve for a trainer with favorable synthetic-dirt numbers. #11 Upper Case chased a next-out winner last out. #9 Forenoon wouldn't surprise but might be overbet against the aforementioned contenders.

PICKS: 2-15-8-11-9

3rd Race

This is our first shot against a real favorite here with #3 Comparative expected to take dough off the runaway maiden victory, but that was at 4-to-5 against five others at Fair Grounds after 5 previous failed attempts. No thanks against these.

#6 Forever Dixie's lone dirt try isn't inspiring at first blush, but she tracked the pace after breaking slow on debut and finished behind two next-out winners. It was turf and synthetic since then, and routing in three-year-old debut off a four-and-a-half-month layoff is a tough ask, but Joel Rosario aboard intrigues. #1 Hayunevano is a gate-to-wire threat under Corey Lanerie back on dirt after failed Fair Grounds turf stakes try.

PICKS: 6-1-9-7-4 (against #3 as the favorite)

4th Race

Oh, dear. I've been dreading having to write about this race. Can I really pass on #8 Tiz the Bomb in this spot after picking him in each of his last five races?

(Un?)fortunately, I cannot.

Yes, the excuses are mounting, but 9 furlongs off the bench was a tough ask and then right back on that Fair Grounds turf course gave another ready-made excuse. Now you get 2nd Lasix for third-off the layoff and a switch to James Graham. There's just too much "there" there to have one of my faves beat me at 12-to-1.

The other piece of the "why not Tiz the Bomb" puzzle is that most of the alternatives are prices as well. Sure, #7 Hurricane Dream will take money off that stateside debut and now getting Lasix with Dettori staying aboard second in North America for Graham Motion, but #12 Beatbox and #9 Greyes Creek will both be double digit and have races that can beat any of these.

PICKS: 8-7-12-9-4

5th Race

Experience versus up-and-comers clash in this tilt that begins the $1 (non jackpot) Pick 6, and we're siding with the freshest face in #7 Peacock Alley who looked awesome on debut and got a good number in the process. #5 Half a Chance has three times as many starts, but the one on dirt was a winner, and while I'm not sure how much I want this one going any further than this 6 1/2 furlongs (the win came at 5 1/2), she should improve off that speed-and-fade comebacker. #6 Vahva could benefit from a speed duel while #9 Just Like Magic intrigues at 20-to-1 ML showing some improvement last out adding Lasix.

PICKS: 7-5-6-9-4

6th Race

A lot hangs in the balance of race 6: It starts the 50-cent late Pick 5 as well as the $3 all-turf Pick 3. So, starting with an obvious chalk has me feeling somewhat vulnerable, but it's hard to get past #8 Kaufymaker if right. But, part of being a successful horseplayer is being nimble. She's the top tab, but I'll be willing to look elsewhere if she's odds on. The 6-to-5 morning line certainly signals danger in that direction.

#4 Laugh and Play was completely out of her element when unable to make the lead from an outside post lats out but now gets turf, a better draw, and Tyler Gaffalione. #7 Linguistic has the fastest races on the page, but those were synthetic. The turf debut last time, though, gives hope that there could be improvement second-off-the-layoff.

PICKS: 8-4-7

From a multi-race wagering standpoint, definitely playing two sets of tickets that singles Kaufymaker on one and uses 4, 7 on the other if they're their morning line prices (or higher).

7th Race

Late Pick 4 time! All-stakes Pick 3 time! Beat the favorite time?

Man, this is why Keeneland racing is so fun. The mode is that both Kaufymaker and #3 Hejazi roll, and that double pays 3-to-1 at best. Or maybe one of them gets beat and there's some potential for magic late. Or maybe... just maybe... they both get beat and we have a chance at a big BIG score?!!

Not that #5 Corona Bolt will be anywhere near the price as our Kaufymaker alternatives in the previous race, but he won't be the favorite, and the Ragozin Sheets say he was faster last time than the favorite, and that's enough for me. We'll slot #1 Gulfport in there second in case his speed is a real weapon on the rail.

PICKS: 5-1-3

8th Race

As of this writing, I am expecting #11 Carl Spackler to scratch, which is huge, as I think he was the cagey "single in a big field" option for those wanting to spread in the previous race(s) ("Race" if talking about the $3 all-turf Pick 3; "races" if the 50-cent late Pick 5).

#7 Mo Stash has never run a bad race and even had some buzz to him despite the 51-to-1 odds when fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf last year at Keeneland. The three-year-old debut at Tampa was solid and definitely good enough to beat these. Not sure about 6-to-1 with Carl Spackler out, but I can't imagine he'll be favored. #6 Mi Hermano Ramon is a tough a read off the first career loss. It was a step back and now returns after shipping on short rest, but the debut coming long as a two-year-old tells me he might prefer this trip. 15-to-1 is worth finding out.  #9 Nagirroc finished ahead of Mo Stash in the aforementioned BC tilt.

PICKS: 7-6-9-8-2-12

9th Race

For the first time since the end of November, it's a Grade 1 race in the commonwealth! With everyone talking about champion Wonder Wheel and up-and-comer Punchbowl, is now the time to try #4 Julia Shining? No.

I'm going with #5 Punchbowl, who had no business winning on debut when breaking last of 12 and then following that up with a gate-to-wire score when stretching out to two turns. I feel the other two fillies have established their form, and while it's right there with Punchbowl, our pick has more upside.

PICKS: 5-2-4 but from a wagering standpoint it's Punchbowl or nothing--no sense doubling or tripling ticket cost in a 7-horse field with the most obvious alternatives.

 

10th Race

9-furlong turf route for maidens closes the show, and I'm hopeful to be live to some big balloons in here. 

#8 Lil Miss Moonlight fired a bullet going three furlongs heading into this, and trainer Tim Hamm attracting jockey Irad Ortiz has my attention at 8-to-1. #6 Heckled should benefit from the added distance (see graphic below), and trainer Michael Stidham is awesome second-time grass off a grass debut.

PICKS: 8-6-4-7-9-10