Buy TicketsWe're back for day 2 of the Keeneland Spring meeting after kissing our sister to open the stand. "Only" 2 winners from 10 races, but their combined $19.75 mutuel has us at just -1.25% ROI for the meeting. I'd be lying if I said that kiss didn't leave an especially dissatisfying taste, however, given a couple of runner-up finishes on key opinions in the late double. The positive spin, of course, is we're seeing the ball well and ready to crush it today.
Below is the Horse Racing Nation Hot Trainers report, which ranks all the trainers in today at Keeneland by what they have done the last 10 and 25 races anywhere. Not listed are Brad Cox and Ian Wilkes, both of whom had strong opening days. The former won two and finished second in another from four starts and the latter won one and finished second twice from three tries. Cox has four in today, including Verifying -- the chief threat to favored Tapit Trice -- in the featured Blue Gras Stakes.
As far as where the winners came from on opening day, Oaklawn and Gulfstream Parks sent three winners each to Keeneland on the ten-race card with the other winners coming from Fair Grounds, Tampa, and Turfway plus a debut winner.
Here is my grid POST scratches. Write ups by race don't include scratches but the prose is <chef's kiss>
The lone claiming event on the 11-race Blue Grass Stakes day card looks like an opportunity right off the rip, as #3 Only Time is 8-to-1 on the morning line and fits with any of these. A frequent question mark with these Kentucky-based horses early in the Keeneland meeting is how they will handle the shift from Turfway Tapeta to Keeneland dirt, and while there are not many clues to go on given Only Time's only dirt effort came going 5 1/2 furlongs at Horseshoe Indianapolis for a previous barn, it's impossible to ignore he's in form and even just maintaining that form can win this.
PICKS: 3-10-13-4
Going to take a big swing here with #5 Regal Rey, who makes his dirt debut here after two synthetic tries. The debut was pretty flat, but there were some signs of life last out chasing the pace under today's jockey Declan Cannon. Most importantly, though, Union Rags progeny do better on dirt than synthetic, and we're getting 20-to-1 here. See the Horse Racing Nation Sire Moves below. The green coding under the horse's name is an expression of the improvement Union Rags progeny show when going synthetic sprints to dirt sprints.
There are also a quartet of first-time starters in this race, and the Todd Pletcher-trained pair appear to be the most formidable to upend their experienced foes. See the Horse Racing Nation First-Time Power Ratings below. Four-star horses win 14% of the time over a 3,694-race sample, but more importantly, they outperform their odds by 5.5% and their morning line odds by 8.5%!
PICKS: 5-10-7-6-1-8
Our first also eligible top tab of the year is #13 Agent Peter Graves, who needs a scratch to draw in but definitely fits with this group if does especially given the form-cycle appears to be cycling back to his best, which among the turf figures in the race is good enough to win.
And that turf figures designation is the rub. Two in here in particular -- #8 Ibrim and #10 Mischievous Rogue -- have synthetic numbers that would be odds on to win this, but Turfway shippers have not fared well versus off odds the past two years. At 3-to-1 morning line that makes Ibrim a tougher sell for me, but Mischievous Rogue is playable at 8-to-1. Also, I think we'll get better than 9-to-2 on #7 Tightrope, who is a gate-to-wire threat and given the connections I can't imagine will take that kind of money here.
PICKS: 13-7-10-5-8
Programming note here: The $1 Pick 6 with $53,845.25 carryover starts here. I.e., it's not on the last 6 races. It's on these next six races (4-9) ending with the Blue Grass Stakes.
And it's a doozy to start! #2 Sir Alfred James is the pick returning to Kentucky for trainer Lynn Cash, who attracts Irad Ortiz. Sir Alfred James is winless from 3 tries at Keeneland, but the last try was at the end of a 16-race campaign in the Phoenix, and he's steadily improved as a 7-year-old with better races outside of blacktype. The lukewarm pick.
#s 1 Kneedeepinsnow and 5 Three Technique both come in off layoffs. The former has been working steadily at Fair Grounds and has the feel of a horse pointed for this for bigger money than he could have run for in Louisiana. The latter's best numbers have come off the bench.
PICKS: 2-1-5-6-8. Manny Wah is going to have to beat me at 3-to-1 morning line. At his best he's only as fast as all the other horses I've mentioned.
The angel on my right shoulder is saying, "Beware the big number in the slop" while the devil on my left shoulder is saying, "that's the best race any horse in this race has raced."
In the end, I decided to go with the devil I know and disagree with my former colleague James Scully, who thinks #2 Nakatomi is vulnerable in this spot. And I guess he is. It's not like he's a cinch, but the mitigating factor for me here is the complete lack of pace in the race. There's none. Given that Nakatomi easily ran the fastest race last out, I see a paceless race benefitting him most. Plus, he just turned four. Improvement is still possible, so if that last race is his new base then he's much the best here.
I have both #s 3 Get Her Number and 4 Heart Rhythm long looks, but the aforementioned lack of pace kept me from trying the to upend the top pick.
PICKS: 2-4-3-7 (this race starts the all-stakes Pick 5)
One of our best bets of the day (assuming she's 5-to-2) is #7 Pleasant Passage, who has the layoff question to answer here in her three-year-old debut off a runner-up finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile FIllies Turf, but who has shown nothing but professionalism in three career starts, winning on debut at Saratoga from off the pace the following with a gate-to-wire win in her stakes debut. I think she's just better than these.
#6 Be Your Best was 5 lengths behind our top pick in that Breeders' Cup race but that was an impossible trip, and she was beaten just 2 3/4 lengths by Pleasant Passage in the Ms Grillo. I'd love to see new rider Luis Saez get aggressive here and maybe be able to hold on for a piece at 8-to-1 ML.
PICKS: 7-6-5-3 (all-stakes Pick 4 and $3 all-Turf Pick 3 starts here)
Many multi-race wagers go through the Madison Stakes: A pair of Pick 5s, that Pick 6 with carryover... needless to say (but will be said because I get paid by the word), this is a key race, and the presence of champion female sprinter Good Night Olive at 2-to-5 morning line makes it even more confounding.
The Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint winner on this track last year was the model of consistency in her four-race campaign, clicking fast figures in each start with no real big moves in either direction, and she established that baseline in her seasonal debut off a 7-month layoff. If she repeats that pattern here she's 2-to-5 to win this race for sure.
The only other horse with figures as fast as Goodnight Olive is #3 Society, but she moved forward to those numbers during the season, so betting her to achieve them off a layoff is a tall ask. Of those who have raced this year, #4 Yuugiri is clearly fastest, but she'd need another big move forward to contest Goodnight Olive at her level and with a similar style as Society that's a big ask.
PICK: 2 (late Pick 5 starts here)
From one Breeders' Cup winner that has the look of a cinch to one that is vulnerable (albeit at a bigger price), I have to try to beat Caravel here, who certainly packs an impressive resume with the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint win, but it's only as fast as half the field. There is absolutely no edge even at her best and that makes her a tough bet at 8-to-5.
Unfortunately, it's a very evenly matched group, so we'll look to the speed and be done with it. #3 Artemus City Limits and #13 Nobody Listens can both make some noise on the front end. If there's a scratch and they both get in then maybe that compromises their chances. However, if #3 scratches to get #13 in then that makes Nobody Listens a huge threat as looser outside speed.
It was a bad BC Turf Sprint for Wesley Ward, as both of his, including wunderkind Golden Pal, were nonfactors, but #12 Arrest Me Red returns here and has a good tracking quality with the outside post. #4 Bakers Bay has looked good on synthetic and has a win over this course. He'd love to sit behind a speed duel.
PICKS: 3-13-12-4
Here we go! It's the big one! The $1-million Toyota Blue Grass Stakes for Keeneland glory and a spot in the Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve.
I do not have anything overly creative here. I thought Tapit Trice was spectacular in the Tampa Bay Derby, winning a race from a position very few horses -- even at 1-to-2 -- can. Those tactics may not work on May 6 at Churchill Downs, and I'd rather not see them today given this field is tougher, but the talent is too much for me to dismiss.
One horse I don't like in this spot is #2 Clear the Air. He can beat me.
PICK: 1
Paddock Prince David Levitch and I discuss the current Kentucky Derby landscape and the Blue Grass Stakes in the video below.
Somewhat anticlimactic successor to the Blue Grass Stakes, as this entry level allowance is one of the more straight forward races on the card with #1 Squire Creek clearly the horse to beat off that debut and #4 Blue Light and #2 Gilcrease the only credible threats.
Both Squire Creek and Blue Light won gate-to-wire on debut but the former earned much better pace ratings in doing so, and as long as there's no issue from the rail should be gone from these. Brad Cox is 29% with next-out maiden winners and a +14% ROI, impressive numbers for a trainer who gets bet.
PICK: 1
We were high on a Shug runner earlier and we're high on one late, as #3 Operation Torch gets to stretch out to 9 furlongs off that two-turn debut and given the pedigree should love every yard of it. Irad Ortiz sees fit to hop aboard and is on the horse to beat.
#1 Mondego set the pace going 9 furlongs on debut and tired. That was a good effort and now trainer Christophe Clement legs up Joel Rosario. The only danger unless #15 Gentlman draws in.
PICKS: 3-1-15
