Buy TicketsHoping to close out week 1 better than we opened it. Some decent opinions peppered throughout the first 21 races of the meeting but definitely lacking the coup de grace. Think getting some hits, moving some baserunners around, failing to score. Today we taste victory!
TOP PICK STATS: 21-4-4-1 (19.0% win, 42.8% ITM, -37.3% ROI)
Speed has done very well so far this weekend, and while a case can be made for #7 Anchises being the speed of the speed here, I think the inside draw and Luis Saez taking the mount aboard #5 Moving to Kentucky (who has never been outside of Kentucky in his racing career) tells me this one might try to win it at the jump.
PICKS: 5-1-6-7
You know the drill in these maiden races. We're going to pick a 4- or 5-star debut horse on the Horse Racing Nation First-Time Power Ratings. That mantle belongs to #10 Wherever We Are, whose $80,000 price tag on a $5,000 stud fee and bullet workouts stick out for a trainer (Wesley Ward) who likes to win first out. #1 Equal Success merits some attention at 6-to-1 with a rail draw and being out of a mare who has already thrown a two-year-old winner.
PICKS: 10-1-6-11
Extremely competitive group here. Going to give the nod to #8 Golden Sunshine who was never winning with that trip this year at Kentucky Downs and should appreciate two turns here (a mile at the jelly is a one-turn affair). #3 Sonja Henie gets four Horse Racing Nation stars for her debut and have to appreciate that the stakes-winning dam has three turf winners from three starters already.
PICKS: 8-3-6-12
#11 Cromwell is the lone five-star debut horse here, and coupling that rating with trainer Cherie DeVaux's and jockey Jose Ortiz's hot starts has me feeling good that this one will be ready. #8 Cuban Cowboy is 20-to-1 on the morning line--a big enough price to make an automatic use given the four HRN stars. Trainer Kenny McPeek doesn't necessarily fire first-time out as a rule, but sire Twirling Candy has some good stats and the algorithm sees something it likes!
PICKS: 11-8-6-3-4
#5 World Record is one of those I'd love at 9-to-2 (his morning line price) but am scared he'll get bet down from there. Fast colt is making his turf debut after running against some of the best three-year-old sprinters. Gate-to-wire threat here if takes to the sod. #8 Spirit's Mischief is another front-end threat, and if our top pick doesn't break well or hates the grass then this one could be long gone.
This begins the $3 all-turf Pick 3 that also includes races 8 and 10.
PICKS: 5-8-7-12
#5 King of Kentucky looks to be the speed in here, and his performance last out wins this. He normally doesn't pair his top performances but lone speed should help that. #4 Spycraft will be one of the ones chasing late. Jockey Declan Cannon is one of the highest-ranked jockeys by ROI the past few years at Keeneland.
PICKS: 5-4-3
Have to think some potential stakes performers in this maiden race going 7 furlongs. The two five-star horses drew alongside each other in #7 Dr. Saikali and #8 Tuscaloosa. Can't pick the former after 'bama got upset yesterday at Vandy so Dr. Saikali it is.
PICKS: 7-8-12
All-stakes pick 3 begins here with the second leg of the $3 all-turf Pick 3, the Indian Summer stakes for two-year-old turf sprinters. Going to hope there's enough pace in here for #2 Chasing Liberty to chase down. Should save ground from the inside post and then sprint home for glory. #5 Dreamaway would be the one to steal it if that happens. #7 Governor Sam is the 3-to-1 morning line favorite, and since I have both short priced first-time starters in race 7, I'd be looking to beat the favorite here.
PICKS: 2-5
Grade1 action concludes for the weekend with the Juddmonte Spinster, a race that could set up a dramatic showdown between presumptive three-year-old filly champion Thorpedo Anna and last year's champion older female and Distaff winner Idiomatic.
This looks like a great set up for the big favorite, as jockey FLorent Geroux should have no issue either getting a clear lead here from the rail or position behind anyone else on a suicide mission. #6 Occult is the fourth choice on the line, and I actually prefer her second best, so even if odds on isn't your cup of tea with Idiomatic, the exacta could be of interest.
PICKS: 1-6
We close the show with the Bourbon Stakes, a prep for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf on Nov. 1 at Del Mar. #4 Giocoso was impressive on turf two back before trying the Kentucky Derby trail with the Iroquois. He made a decent run there before fading to third but should like this trip against these. #8 Golden Afternoon was impressive on debut at Kentucky Downs. He was on the lead there, which helps, but that trip could work out against these too. #1 Warheart is another coming in at big price from Kentucky Downs.
PICKS: 4-8-1-6