Buy TicketsFeels funny to say "the first Saturday of the meeting" seven days in to the Keeneland spring, but so it goes with last week's postponements. We're also on day seven of an eight-day stretch, and after a slow start to our picks we have a positive ROI over the last two days. Hey, it's something.
11-race card awaits today led by the Lexington Stakes for three-year-olds classic (more likely the Preakness and Belmont Stakes than the Kentucky Derby) types and the Grade 1 Jenny WIley for older turf females. We're going to try to beat the favorite in both of those (races races 9 and 10).
Trainer Michael McCarthy shows up on the Horse Racing Nation "hot trainers" list. He saddles Bullard in the aforementioned Lexington and is also the trainer of Kentucky Derby favorite Journalism. PICK STATS: 57-13-10-4 (22.8% win, 47.3% ItM, -26.4% ROI)
I admittedly do not make a habit of picking three-star debut horses on top but making an exception to tab #9 Heatontap in today's lid lifter for a few reasons.
- Trainer John Ortiz already has two wins at the meeting, and while Campout did not win his debut yesterday at Oaklawn by virtue of throwing his jockey at the start of the race, the way he did run riderless suggested he was ready to roll.
- The favorite is 0-for-12 maiden #1 Warp Nine. This Calumet Farm homebred has never faced this level on dirt, so maybe he wakes up here on the surface switch while maintaining the drop in class, but 2-to-1 is just way too light.
- Both #3 Diver and #4 Ky Thirty Won intrigue at their morning line prices (8- and 6-to-1, respectively). Diver gets blinkers for his first maiden claiming try on dirt while Ky Thirty Won returns off a long layoff gelded and with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard. If he shows the same zip we saw when he ran for Todd Pletcher then could be dangerous in here.
PICKS: 9-3-4
I don't actually think we'll get the 20-to-1 morning line price on #8 Shape Note, but this is a competitive enough race with questions surrounding him that we'll get a palatable price for sure. Anna Meah claimed this one for $25,000 last month at Colonial, and she comes right back for $40,000 after a local work. She won a race Friday, and if this one has maintained its form enough to still be a front-end presence is dangerous.
#3 Pure Panic pretty close to me talent wise as our top pick, but we'll get a much better price on the ocho. Still, Pure Panic is ideally drawn and has some solid races sprinting on dirt. #10 Refuah is a longshot closer than can be running late. Maybe #2 Cape Trafalgar is better than these dropping out of graded stakes, but at the expected price I'll gamble that he's just going the wrong way.
PICKS: 8-3-10
On the turf here, and a five-star rated horse on Horse Racing Nation with an 8-to-1 morning line gets the juices flowing. #1 Hibiscus debuts for trainer Josie Carroll, an 18% conditioner with her first-time starters. Dam Fiji Moon has already produced a turf winner.
Of those who have run, #9 Theravada looks most interesting stretching out for trainer Rusty Arnold in career start number two with Luis Saez picking up the mount. #13 Oak Alley would need to draw in (and one of those two would need a new jockey, as Saez is listed on the 13 as well).
PICKS: 1-9-13-3-5
#3 Goldbrick ran in to buzzsaw Just a Touch last time in high-level allowance race at Fair Grounds. Now he cuts back in distance, is gelded, and Ben Curtis takes the riding assignment. There's a lot going on there, but Goldbrick has improved this year and looks well spotted by trainer Bret Calhoun here. #6 Frosty Indulgence was "only" 22-to-1 against 11 others in the Pat Day Mile last year, a race that included next-out Preakness Stakes winner Seize the Grey. That is to say, trainer Chris Davis likely knows there's some talent here and maybe this is the level to show it. #10 Gamblers Tail ran well at this track and distance last year for trainer John Ortiz (referenced race 1).
PICKS: 3-6-10
This is the second of four turf races of the day but the first in the $3 all-turf pick 3 (my favorite bet)!
Trainer Cherie DeVaux snapped a 17-race losing streak yesterday, so going to take the approach that the worm has turned for this exemplary barn and back #10 States Rights in this spot. Well-named Constitution colt broke his maiden here last year and did nothing wrong in two turf tries at Fair Grounds that included a runner-up finish to likely Kentucky Derby starter (and Jeff Ruby Steaks runner-up Flying Mohawk(. Reunites with Jose Ortiz and just needs to avoid losing too much ground. #5 Ready For Peace has stayed on after chasing fast paces in last two and might be the leader of the pack for a long way today.
PICKS: 10-5-3-11
Start of the $1 (no jackpot) Pick 6, and if Speak Easy is able to even maintain his form from his four-year-old debut last out then it is tough to see #3 getting beat here. If he improves then it could be lights out.
Biggest concern for his chances is what #5 Harrodsburg and #6 Wico do, as both have front-end ability to go along with speed from outside longshots #s 8 and 9. Speak Easy capable of rating, which would be ideal to get the jump on #4 Discreet Mischief, who will be running late but maybe have too much to do if Speak Easy runs his best.
PICK: 3
Only #1 Valiant Humor interests me among those who have already run, but he interests me a lot off that debut in which he set solid fractions before getting caught late as the 2.3-to-1 favorite against eight others. #2 Fact gets four stars on the Horse Racing Nation debut ratings system, which is certainly good enough to merit respect here. #9 Vex does not seem impossible based on pedigree, but those are just underneath tabs with the uno if price is right.
PICK: 1
I hate to be a default handicapper in this spot because it'd be awesome to have a high-priced opinion in a full field, but for a $120,000 allowance race there just is not a lot of stakes-level talent in here, and that's what we're used to seeing in a lot of these Keeneland turf allowances. That's why I see myself defaulting to the international shippers--#8 Bessie Abott and #11 Al Jafarra. I can't imagine either of their connections purchased these horses privately to come here and win allowance races, so if this is a stepping stone to stakes then one of them has to win this.
PICKS: 8-11
Speaking of stakes, this actually is one! The Lexington Stakes is three weeks from the Kentucky Derby, and while it is unlikely to have an impact on that field, we could see some classic types in here with the Preakness and Belmont Stakes both on the horizon as well.
#3 Bullard is the choice in here, figuring we'll get the price we want with #7 Praetor, #6 Gosger, and #8 Hypnus all expected to take money. Bullard has not really done anything wrong in his career other than happening to hook horns with Barnes in the San Vicente Stakes. Being by Gun Runner out of a Warrior's Reward mare no reason to think the stretchout to 1 1/16 miles here will be an issue. Nice inside draw for his pressing style. Sky is the limit.
I do think all three of the horses I mentioned above will take money, which makes Praetor somewhat palatable as the chalk. I just don't think Gosger or Hypnus will offer any value based on their buzz outweighing actual performance to date.
PICKS: 3-7
The Jenny Wiley Stakes concludes the $3 all-turf Pick 3 as well as Grade 1 action in Kentucky until the Kentucky Oaks on May 2 at Churchill Downs. It's a decent way to go out, though, as this is a stellar cast.
#8 Sacred Wish was way wide last out when trying to run down Be Your Best in the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf. She is as good as any of these and while I'd never take a favorite who "needs the right trip" I'm more than happy to gamble on this one getting it at 8-to-1 morning line.
#3 Poolside with Slim is 20-to-1 morning line and maybe a win is not that likely, but she seems capable of outrunning her odds here given consistency and decent draw. All three overseas horses are dangerous but they take money, and unlike our comments for race 8, the domestic horses are legit.
PICKS: 8-3-9
#13 Black Ginger would be an interesting upset threat here if she draws in. That was a big step forward last out, so if it were an aberration then she doesn't fit at all but if she can repeat it then maybe that's enough to upend heavily favored #8 Sherbini off the layoff. Sherbini does not have a lot of speed so I'm reticent to back at a short price against more in-form foes. #7 Talent Show showed some early speed last time and now cuts back here. #2 Autumn Rhythm is drawn well with one-turn speed.
PICKS: 13-7-2-11