Buy TicketsWe finally had a great day of picking on the eighth of eight consecutive days of racing to kick off the Keeneland Race Course spring meeting, and our reward for that performance was two days of rest. Hopefully we still have momentum on this wave we're riding to keep it going as week three begins with an 8-race card.
Two-race leads in the jockey and trainer standings with 7 days of racing to go (Wednesday-Saturday this week and Wednesday-Friday next week).
The pick five is paying an average of about $11k for 50 cents, and the average win payoff of $15.33 is robust as well.
PICKS STATS: 77-19-15-7 (24.6% win, 53.2% ItM, -11% ROI)
#10 Purely Zen debuts for a low percentage barn, but the workouts--particularly that 47-and-2 move from the gate two back--say this one is ready. Don't love post nine at this trip, but 12-to-1 morning line on a five-star Horse Racing Nation First-Time Power Ratings horse is a must use.
Trainer Wesley Ward scratches his rail runner to start #5 Satisfied Mind. The four-star rating from HRN say she's capable, but dam having only one starter from three starters a little concerning. The connections of Nanzig are off to slow starts at the meeting but the inside draw for a four-star-rated horse and a 14% debut sire could wake things up at 20-to-1 morning line. #2 Evolution now moves to coveted rail spot.
PICKS: 10-5-3-2
Going to lean into the track profile through the first eight days of the meeting by giving #1 Big Earn top billing here. First start for trainer Steve Asmussen was a good one for the level last out, running a last time best in synthetic debut. Back to dirt here but a drop in class with Irad Ortiz Jr. picking up the mount. Dangerous.
#6 Casilda could have the pace advantage here. #14 What's Her Number would be a lot more dangerous with a better post but merits respect drawing in. #5 Lady Blake is not a concern on debut (see graphic below)
PICKS: 1-6-14
If you thought inside speed was good in dirt sprints (race 2 graphic), check out these track trends for dirt routes this meeting at Keeneland!
With the above in mind, we're going to take a shot with the deuce Guanare, who had a rough start from an outside post last time but has been closer when sprinting. Now he drops in class and has a nice inside post and can maybe get the edge on the rest early. Frequent claim #5 Gilmore makes second start for Joe Sharp barn; #4 Baba Voss was claimed last time and has a win at this distance. #8 Slip Mahoney will have to beat me. #TOSS
PICKS: 2-5-4
Going to try the outside speed here with #11 Panthor, as his form is rock solid right now, and maybe he'll have too much to do early to have anything left late, but his best wins this and the price is right. #1 God of Wine has an ideal post and if Panthor does not run well because the pace is too hot then God of Wine would be one of the ones running late. #9 returns to dirt for first time after three synthetic starts following a long layoff. #10 Double Barrel is too short at 7-to-5 morning line.
PICKS: 11-1-9-10
The inside speed trend is not limited to dirt, as sprinters on the lawn have also benefited from that style. Obviously a smaller sample size so consider accordingly.
#3 Candy Mine returns from long lay off to make turf debut and add lasix. First-time out was a sporty effort from a tough post. Only other half sibling to race won on turf. #10 Magic Escapade would have gotten the top pick nod if a better post but appears to have some zip based on bullet works and like our top pick has a half sib who won on turf. #13 Maclean's Lullaby's best races on synthetic so maybe that means well for turf debut. #1 draws the rail for a cutback.
PICKS: 3-10-13-1
#8 Trust Issues is just too juicy at 15-to-1 morning line not to take a shot on this gelding who ran super well on Feb. 15 at Turfway Park. That was his synthetic debut so always a concern that the surface is partly to attribute to the improvement but if he is just better now then the price is right to play here before everyone else finds out. #6 Augusta Melody is the most likely winner of this race, but I think he'll be less than the 3-to-1 morning line portends. I expect to bet #8 to win and a straight 6-8 exacta.
PICKS: 8-6-3-2
We'll see if 8-to-1 happens on #8 Dala because she is the fastest of this group from both pace and final time perspectives. Sure, turf is a question mark, but the synthetic debut was too good to ignore here, and her dam has produced a turf winner already. #12 just missed in a pair of turf stakes at Fair Grounds. Be careful to call this a class drop, though, considering the purse of this allowance is more than either of those stakes. #1 Satin Blue may have too much to do late but can slot beneath our top pick.
PICKS: 8-12-1-4
You can't tell me that #4 We'll Do It Live is not one of the best names of a Thoroughbred ever. Regardless, she is the play here given her speed and expectation of improvement second-off the layoff for Robertino Diodoro. #2 Could Be a Cougar is dangerous with Jesus Cruz making a rare start here and getting jockey Ben Curtis.
PICKS: 4-2-1-5