Buy TicketsI'm not going to sugarcoat this... primarily because it needs no sugarcoating: this is a fantastically unbelievable 9-race Thursday card today at Keeneland Race Course. We'll see how I feel at the end of it, of course, but going into it we are pumped up for quality racing and reasonable wagering opportunities.
PICK STATS: 85-20-16-8 (23.5% win, 51.7% ItM, -19.9% ROI)
This is one of the toughest races I've handicapped this season. Some people get excited about these races because they see them as "great betting races" when there is not an obvious choice, but this group is so evenly matched it's hard to know who to be excited about from a wagering standpoint.
I ultimately landed on #1 Schifty's Haloid as the top pick stretching out and returning to dirt for trainer Michael McCarthy who gets leading rider Flavien Prat aboard. His two races this year are among the best of his career, so he will need to maintain that with the variable changes, but 4-to-1 would be the right price. #3 First of His Name is a shorter 3-to-1 on the morning line, so I'd want a bigger price to back this one, but there is plenty to like with trainer Bill Cowans going to starter company off the claim. #2 Gorilla Trek goes turf to dirt second-off the claim and dropping in class for Alexis Claire.
PICKS: 1-3-2
First of four on the turf today, and this should be a fun one with #7 Atarah stretching out after showing speed sprinting on the dirt. A couple of red flags here, though: 1) the pedigree doesn't scream turf, and 2) a $450,000 buy for these connections is significant, so pulling the trigger on the main track already is curious. All that said, this horse gets Flavien Prat and can control the competition here. I won't want much less than the 7-to-2 morning line so watch the board. #4 Double Jeopardy came from way out of it on debut and is the horse to beat. If Atarah does not get away from Double Jeopardy then Double Jeopardy gets the dough albeit at a likely short price.
PICKS: 7-4
Hopeing for the 9-to-2 morning line here as that would make #7 Bellofthebluegrass one of our best bets of the day, as she drops in claiming price off the win. Her two dirt tries don't show much, but those were against much better. She is the horse to beat here. #5 Candy Cause another coming off a win, but she is going up in claiming price. 12-to-1 not a bad price to find out if she can get enough pace to close into.
PICKS: 7-5-4-9
#10 Backtrack had a little trouble on debut, breaking in while still managing to be a part of the early fray before finishing third. Now he goes synth to dirt while adding blinkers and picking up Jose Ortiz. Squarely the horse to beat #2 Free Spin an intriguing longshot on debut and offering potential to out run his 12-to-1 morning line odds given the HRN four-star rating.
PICKS:10-2-3-11-6-1-7
#9 Devil in Disguise gets the top nod here based on the 6-to-1 morning line price and closing style with the potential for plenty of speed signed on in this dash. As the first leg of the $3 all-turf pick 3, however, we'll be looking to spread against the favorite to kick things off. #13 Monsieur Candy will look to flash outside speed, and gets a seven-pound weight break with the apprentice up. I can't dismiss at 6-to-1 morning line. #5 Send Cash also has speed but will be a shorter price.
PICKS: 9-13
The morning line says this is a two-horse race between #4 Shewontbudge and #5 Bundle, and I agree. The former projected to be favored, which is good news from a wagering standpoint since I prefer the latter cutting back to the near-one-mile distance with more speed shown in two career starts than we saw from Shewontbudge on debut. The margin is razor thin here, and I'd only bet one or the other if there were a clear difference in price.
PICKS: 5-4
We can go wider against the favorite in leg one of the all-turf $3 Pick 3 because I expect to be narrow on the logicals here and in race 9. #3 Tucson is making his turf debut here but is undefeated on synth after stretching out after a dirt sprint debut. Extremely dangerous in this spot and a potential future graded stakes winner here for potent connections. #2 Mutaawid ran on well late last out at this distance behind a pace Brisnet classified as extremely slow. Things should pick up today, so he is live to move forward.
PICKS: 3-2-10-11-9
High-level allowance race here, and again (similar to race 6) two horses really stand out to me, but unlike race 6 it looks as if one is clearly going to be the bigger (and thus playable) price, and that is #4 Wisconsin Gal. This filly drops out of some salty stakes at Oaklawn, and while she was not super competitive in any, she was routinely pressing fast paces before relenting. #1 Mila Rose was elecrifying on debut, passing nine horses late to win going away. Now she moves to dirt and is the filly to beat if she can repeat the debut, but I'm worried about price. I will bet #4 to win and a 1-4 straight exacta.
PICKS: 4-1
We close the show and the $3 all-turf pick 3 with this maiden turf affair, and #9 Love You Anyway a strong lean off a solid start to career in Florida where she was second on debut before trying stakes and finishing fifth behind good-thing Nitrogen, a next-out graded stakes winner. #10 Oak Alley picks up Ben Curtis off a decent debut where she showed some signs of light late. Trainer Brendan Walsh solid numbers second-time grass so improvement worth a gamble at 6-to-1 morning line price.
PICKS: 9-10