Keeneland Select Derby Prep Picks
Saturday, May, 2, 2020
By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
The $500,000 Arkansas Derbys (G1), Oaklawn Park
11th race – Division 1 – (1) Charlatan makes his first start in a stakes race in this Grade 1 event. The Bob Baffert runner has a perfect 2 for 2 record and the two highest Beyer Figures (105, 106) for any 3-year-old this year. He drew the rail but should have no trouble taking control of the race on the lead since the other possible speed horse is in post position 11. (4) Gouverneur Morris should get an ideal set-up for his stalking style and is one who will appreciate the nine-furlongs. (8) Anneau d’Or was a major disappointment in the Risen Star (G2) back in February. They tried blinkers for the first time in that race and now they come off. He had a great 2-year-old season. (10) Crypto Cash ran well in his 2020 debut to get fourth in stake at Turfway Park after stumbling badly at the start. He’s back to the dirt where he did break his maiden with a late run. Betting strategy: Exacta key box: 1 with 4, 8, 9, 10, 11. Trifectas: 1 with 4, 8, 9, 10, 11 with 4, 8, 9, 10, 11.
13th race – Division 2 – (10) Farmington Road got first time blinkers and came flying late to miss the top spot in the Oaklawn Stakes by a half-length on a sloppy track. This quality field appears loaded with horses that prefer to be forwardly placed. The Todd Pletcher runner will need to make another step forward to get the win. Attractive odds are likely. (5) Nadal has a perfect record that includes a pair of Grade 2 victories with the most recent in the Rebel (G2). His wins all came while part of the early pace. (4) King Guillermo was the 49-1 winner of the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) when he sat in second early and then drew off to win by more than four lengths. Typically horses that win at big odds don’t come back to win their next start. (11) Wells Bayou will have to deal with the far outside post position and lots of speed on the inside as a horse who raced on the front end in his last two races. Last time, he won the Louisiana Derby (G2) going 9.5 furlongs when he got loose on the lead. Betting strategy: 10 to win, place, show. Exacta key box: 10 with 3, 4, 5, 11. Trifectas: 5, 10 with 3, 4, 5, 10, 11 with 3, 4, 5, 10, 11.