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Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | January 15, 2022

January 14, 2022

Race 8 at Oaklawn | Saturday January 15 | Post Time 4:46 PM Eastern

Fifth Season Stakes | Purse $150,000 | One Mile | Four Years Old and Upward

 

Thomas Shelby (1) draws the rail for this mile trip and that means jockey David Cohen will have the ability to put him on the lead, which has resulted in three wins in his last four starts, or settle him off the pace, which has resulted in another three wins before that. Thomas Shelby joined the barn of trainer Robertino Diodoro in November, 2020 and after finishing fourth, third and seventh in his initial three starts for the barn, has turned into an “alpha” horse, winning seven of 10, finishing second in two others and third another time. Last October Thomas Shelby ran the best race of his career winning a classified allowance race with a career-best 112 Equibase Speed Figure. He won again in November then after two months off led until deep stretch before coming up three-quarters of a length short in the Tinsel Stakes. That race was at Oaklawn and was run at a mile and one-eighth, with Thomas Shelby leading at the point this mile race ends so repeating that effort could be good enough to win the Fifth Season Stakes.

Silver Prospector (8) has four career wins, one of which came at Oaklawn. That was when victorious in the 2020 Southwest Stakes with a then career-best 107 figure. After a poor sixth place effort in the Rebel Stakes followed by a poorer seventh place finish in the Arkansas Derby, Silver Prospector was given nearly six months off. Returning in the fall off a lengthy layoff, Silver Prospector raced in top form to win and earned a very strong 106 figure considering the time off. Although winless in five races since, Silver Prospector ran just as well as he had in the comeback when second in the Razorback Stakes last February at Oaklawn, earning a 108 figure. Now rested since last May the same way he was in the spring of 2020 until his strong win in the fall of that year, Silver Prospector has put in a pair of very strong workouts which were the best of 52 and the fourth best of 44 on the day. These signal he could be as fit and ready to run just like he did off a similar layoff, and if he does that he could certainly compete for top honors in this race.

Concert Tour (5) is another returning off a layoff since last May, and he too is working in the morning like he will not need a race before showing his best. Concert Tour won the first three races of his career last year, including the San Vicente Stakes and the Rebel, in which he earned a career-best 104 figure drawing off easily to win by four and one-quarter lengths in geared down fashion. After a third place finish in the Arkansas Derby¸ Concert Tour skipped the Kentucky Derby then showed up in the Preakness, running the worst race of his career when ninth of 10 and beaten more than 30 lengths. Returning to training last October, Concert Tour has been placed in the care of trainer Brad Cox, who has an exceptional record of nine wins from 25 starts with horses coming back from six months off or more in dirt routes. As such, Concert Tour appears to fit with the best of the contenders in this year’s Fifth Season.

 

Win bets:

Thomas Shelby (1) to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Because Silver Prospector (8) opens at odds of 10/1, we must consider a win bet at odds of 5 to 1 or more, but for a smaller amount as compared to the win bet on Thomas Shelby.

Exactas:

Box Thomas Shelby (1), Concert Tour (5) and Silver Prospector (8)