Race 13 at Gulfstream Park | Saturday January 27 | Post Time 5:40 PM Eastern

Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $3 Million | One Mile and One Eighth | Four Year Olds and Upward

 

Analysis and top win contenders:

Todd Pletcher has won five of the last 14 editions of the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes, formerly the Donn Handicap examining his three entrants in this race first is a strategy to consider. Among the trio consisting of Crupi (11), Dynamic One (2) and Grand Aspen (9), the latter gets the nod because although Crupi has won two stakes in a row, neither were graded and the best of the pair earned him a 103 Equibase Speed Figure unlikely to be competitive if repeated here as the top horses in the field have earned 109 to 117 figures recently and in similar stakes. Dynamic One was away from the races for more than 15 months until his return on December 22, with a non-competitive fifth place effort making it unlikely he can run well enough to compete with the best of this group.

On the other hand, Grand Aspen (9) is a lightly raced horse who joined the Pletcher barn last summer and who has nearly won all eight of his races since then. He ran on turf in his first three races for Pletcher last summer, winning once and placing twice. Then moved to dirt he found a home starting in October with a neck defeat and then career-best 101 Equibase Speed Figure, followed by a sparking three length win at the nine furlong trip of this race. Moving into graded stakes competition for the first time on December 30 for the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes, Grand Aspen ran the best race of his career when moving from second to lead with a quarter mile to run, opening up, then just beaten by a neck on the wire by O’Connor (2). Having gone from a 108 figure on 11/24 to 113 on 12/30, the pattern suggests Grand Aspen can take another step forward to win this prestigious race.

In a race similar to the Harlan’s Holiday, namely the Clark Stakes on November 24, Trademark (5) and First Mission (8) ran the best races of their careers, earning 112 speed figures when separated by a nose at the wire. Trademark won that battle, with exceptional riding on the part of Fernando De La Cruz who had ridden the horse just one time prior to the Clark when victorious in the Michael G. Schaefer Memorial Stakes in July. First Mission, who was making his second start following six months off in the Clark, is another very competitive horse and how has finished first or second in all five career starts, the Clark being his first try in a graded stakes race. Needless to say, both horses would be no surprise if successful in this year’s Pegasus.

O’Connor (2) is another with no chinks in his armor, having won two important stakes races in a row. In October, O’Connor won the Fayette Stakes at the distance of the Pegasus with a 103 speed figure, improving to a grade 1 quality 113 figure last month over the track when winning the Harlan’s Holiday. It must be noted the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes is the local prep for the Pegasus (which was renamed from the Donn Handicap), having replaced the Hal’s Hope Stakes which until 2020 was run in the first two weeks of January. Historically, whether the race is named the Hal’s Hope or the Harlan’s Holiday, the local prep for the Pegasus has had a lot of significance and that is another reason we can expect Harlan’s Holiday winner O’Connor, as well as runner-up Grand Aspen, to have a big say in the outcome of his race.

About likely betting favorite National Treasure (7) – Certainly the 115 speed figure earned when beaten a nose by Cody’s Wish in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile would make the colt very competitive if repeated, and there is no reason it can’t be repeated. On the other hand, in his only successful effort beyond a mile when winning the 2023 Preakness Stakes, National Treasure faced only six other horses and established an easy lead on very slow fractions, then held on by a head at the wire. In the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, National Treasure once again attempted to use his early speed to his best advantage and led until the final stages. He has never come from off the pace to win and when he does not get the lead he appears to need for his best, he does not show any kick in the late stages. In this field, with Hoist the Gold (4) coming out of one-turn races and routinely running the first half-mile in about 45 seconds, and with Hoist the Gold drawn inside of National Treasure in the gate, it is highly unlikely National Treasure will get the easy early lead he needs to succeed.

Bets:

Win: If my assertion National Treasure is a vulnerable favorite, that creates a lot of value for win bets on other horse, so much so that we should not hesitate to be two, or even three of the contenders to win.

Therefore, I will consider a win bet on Grand Aspen (9) at odds of 4 to 1 or more, and a second (and possibly a third win bet) on Trademark (5) and O’Connor (2) at 5 to 1 odds or higher. Given First Mission (8) opensat 7 to 2 he does not offer the same value for a win bet as the other three win contenders. 

Exactas:

Box O’Connor (2), Trademark (5), First Mission (8) and Grand Aspen (9).

We can also consider the following exacta which adds three other horses in the second position:

Box O’Connor (2), Trademark (5), First Mission (8) and Grand Aspen (9) over Box O’Connor (2), Trademark (5), First Mission (8), Grand Aspen (9), Hoist the Gold (4), Senor Buscador (6) and National Treasure (7).