Buy TicketsJeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Sunday, October 11, 2026
What to Watch for Today: Week 2 of the Fall Meet concludes with a 9-race program featuring elite turf sprint fillies and mares in the Race 8 Franklin Stakes. The Grade 2 $400,000 main event features defending champ Time to Dazzle against Grade 1 winners Ag Bullet and Usha.
No Keeneland Turf Pick 3 today with 2 turf races carded and Race 5 taken off the turf before post time.
Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing and @Horseplayernow. Catch the archives at your leisure if you can’t make it live, Please subscribe to both channels if you get the chance.
Weather: Forecasts are for a 60% chance of rain throughout the racecard, so keep an eye on conditions as post time approaches and throughout the day.
My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).
Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!
Morning Movers: Utilize Keeneland’s free video workout database, courtesy of the KTDF, here: https://www.keeneland.com/racing/workout-videos. It’s another great, free handicapping tool for betting Keeneland.
Starter allowance runners square off at 1-1/16 miles on dirt in the opener to the early pick 5. We have 29 starter allowance dirt routes in Fall Meets in our database. Favorites have won a solid 13 and the average winner is right on par at 9-2. Of those 29, 24 winners were within 3 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile (average 1-1/2 lengths back at that point). Churchill preps produced 13 of the winners (no other circuit more than 4). The CD reps here are Bebeduoro and Creative Minister, the latter third-place finisher in the 2022 Preakness and now age 7. His trainer Chris Hartman had a strong winner earlier this week. The threat to the CD runners could be Trusty Rusty, who ran a good second here in April in a similar spot and projects to sit a great trip just off the early speed.
Maiden claiming routers go 1-1/16 miles on dirt as the early pick 4 begins. The MCL races early this meet have been very formful, the 7 winners averaging just 5-2 odds with 3 winning favorites. But overall these races have averaged nearly a 6-1 winner over the years. In 87 Fall Meet MCL routes over the years, the average winner is 2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile with 28 of them leading after the first half-mile. Churchill has produced 36 of 87 winners, while Kentucky Downs, Horseshoe Indy and Ellis have been relatively even with 10-8-7. Horses who raced around 2 turns last time haven’t had any major stats edge on those stretching out in these races at this class level. I’ll lean to Jem’s Hersey Kiss and Soho Jimmy as potential longshots in a race without trustworthy favorites. Jem’s Hersey Kiss goes sprint to route and is by Dialed In, a top Kee dirt sire. Trainer Greg Foley had a strong winner earlier this week. Keep an eye on Bourbonkoma for a Rudy Brisset barn that we’ve been touting as a Week 2 one to watch and his runners have followed suit for the most part.
Claiming dirt milers match up in this one at the $20,000 level. It’s our second logistical dress rehearsal for the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile at this current meet. This distance was a thing on dirt from 2015 through 2021, but only 5 of them have been offered since the Breeders’ Cup last departed Lexington in 2022. Just over one-quarter of the 80 in our database were won by the half-mile leader, while the average winner was 1-1/4 lengths back at that point (90% winners were within 4-1/2 lengths). Note that posts 1-2-3 have won more than half the dirt miles offered and have a tactical edge. Just under one-third of local dirt miles were won sprint-to-route. The inside posts here include Ibuki as my top pick for a Rudy Brisset barn that’s on point here during Week 2 of Fall Meets past and present. Hidden Recipe from post 2 also has a big chance here with a crazy 8: 7-1-0 record on dirt (1-14 on turf and synth clouds the form).
The pick 6 kicks off with this non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimer at 1-1/16 miles on dirt. We’ve had 48 such routes at this N2L level in Fall Meets with favorites slightly underperforming at 18-48 and an average winner 4-1 odds (though chalky Lost Chord delivered in Saturday’s opener). Of the 48 winners, 21 prepped at Churchill with Ellis (6) next-best. Adding distance has been gold as 36 of 48 winners raced shorter last time out, with 13 of those making a true, sprint-to-route move at 7F or less last time. I love to find the horse with the best maiden win in a N2L claimer but this is a difficult read: Is it Quinn’s Promise MSW at Ellis in 2024, Oraia’s MSW at Turfway, Lunar Buzz’s MSW at Laurel or Tesouro de Pirata’s MSW at Los Alamitos? Quite a melting pot here. I lean slightly to Tesouro de Pirata in that discussion and the fact she lands Irad Ortiz Jr. might be enough to get over the hump in a race with 4 combined starts over the Kee dirt. Get coverage in multi-race bets here.
Race 5 has been taken off the turf. No trends for this one after the surface change. Updated picks 12-5-11.
The late pick 4 opens with 2-year-old maiden special weight sprinters at 6-1/2 furlongs on dirt. At this specific distance/age/class, the average winner has been just three-quarters of a length off the lead after the first half-mile. The 29 such races have been split evenly between 10 Churchill-prepped winners and 10 first-time starters. The first-time starters look strongest here, including a pair for Kee’s top Week 2 trainers in recent years, Kenny McPeek (Fleetfoot Mac) and Bob (Rudy Brisset), the latter by elite Kee dirt sire Nyquist. Invasion debuts for a Brad Cox barn that’s heated up this week, as has his jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. Among those who’ve started, note trainer Steve Asmussen’s Kee-best 7 wins in this specific race type and distance (including 2 coming off KD turf races like Intermediatio).
This second-level (N2X) allowance sprint at the about 7-furlong distance begins the $3 Late Pick 3. With 17 such N2X ALW sprints in the database on dirt in Fall Meets, favorites winning 8 times and an average winner at 7-2 odds. The public dials these in well. Churchill preppers have 7 wins, no other circuit more than 2. The CD reps here are Modo, Her Town, Moon Mystique and Tapit Quick. Her Town is a solid pick who gets a great pace set-up in front of her and she’s a winner over the track by strong Kee dirt sire Mo Town. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. unleashed a very strong winner here on Friday. Landed is another winner over the track and by elite Kee dirt sire Omaha Beach and the biggest threat among the speed horses.
Sunday’s featured Grade $400,000 Franklin Stakes is one of the meet’s most important turf sprints. We have 19 editions of this race in the database and while 30-1 and 33-1 upsets appear deeper in the history, the last 12 winners all were 7-1 or less with an average at 7-2. Kentucky Downs preppers have won 2 of the last 3 and 5 of the last 9. That’s good news for defending champ Time to Dazzle, Kehoe Beach and Ag Bullet. None of the 19 winners prepped on dirt as Usha attempts. Six of the last 7 winners made slight cut-backs in distance, again shared by the KD trio. There’s plenty of early speed in here for the late-runners, which could be Time to Dazzle and Movin’ On Up benefitting most from the set-up. The average winner of this closer’s profile race has been 3-3/4 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile.
Elder maiden special weight sprinters square off at 6 furlongs on dirt in the Toyota Super High 5 race. Of the 44 such elder MSW sprints in Fall Meets, experienced horses have won 39 and CD preppers account for 15 of those (no other circuit more than 5). The CD reps here include Merry An, Turnback, Tilt a Twirl and Justice. Favorites are 19-44 in these races with an average winner 9-2 odds, so they’re good, fair, trustworthy betting races. Of the 14 held at 6F, 11 winners were within 2-1/2 lengths after the first half-mile, so you prefer to be able to hang close. Beware the comebacking Colussus for a Brendan Walsh barn that’s going well right now. His bullet workout Sept. 25 catches the eye off a Fall 2025 layoff. Rookies Jozempic and Emilio are most interesting among the rookies for Eddie Kenneally, going well all meet with limited starters, and Brad Cox, who has heated up in recent days.