5 Keeneland Keys for Week 1

By Jeremy Plonk @Horseplayernow

Racing This Week: Friday-Sunday, October 8-10

1. Full House: Since the return to dirt in Fall 2014, the Fall Stars opening weekends have averaged 9.0 starters on dirt and 10.6 on turf. Expect the entry box to be popular as the meet gets off to a fast start, which makes for outstanding wagering chances.
2. Flying Start: Trainer Mark Casse has won more races (19) during Fall Stars weekend since 2014 than any other trainer and he’s led the way in both dirt (12) and turf (7) wins. But note the public has dialed into these runners with 13 favorites and only 1 winner above 5-1 odds, maxing out at 8-1. Eight wins have come with 2-year-old maiden special weight runners (7 dirt, 1 turf).
3. Saez on High Alert: Luis Saez, fresh off a Saratoga leading rider title this summer and the 2021 Keeneland Spring Meet crown, was a dynamo here during the 2020 Fall Stars weekend, winning 5 of the 10 stakes races offered. He tallied stakes for Rusty Arnold, Ken McPeek, Brad Cox and Todd Pletcher (2).
4. Two for the Turf: Fall Stars Weekend turf races have been thoroughly dominated by horses exiting races at Kentucky Downs (19 wins) and Saratoga (17), accounting for 68% of the winners since 2014. No other circuit has produced more than 3 winners (Churchill) during that time.
5. Mean Genes: The 2021 Spring Meet saw a quartet of standout sires on the main track – Curlin leading the way with 5 winners from 11 starters (plus two placings), while Tapit, Union Rags and Frosted each posted 4 victories. Frosted did so with only 9 starters, while Union Rags and Tapit needed only 10 (and added a pair of minor placings each).