Jeremy Plonk: 5 Keeneland Keys

By Jeremy Plonk @Horseplayernow 

Racing This Week: Friday-Sunday, October 2-4 

Fall Stars Stakes Facts: No trainer has more Fall Stars Weekend stakes wins since 2014 than Mark Casse’s 8, including 4 renditions of the Bourbon and 7 events in the 2-year-old ranks. Julien Leparoux has been his partner on 6 of those victories. Casse’s great 8 include 4 via Saratoga races, 3 from Kentucky Downs and 1 from Churchill. Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher are next-up with 4. Leparoux leads all riders with 8 stakes victories during that time, and interestingly the trio next in line with 4 – Florent Geroux, John Velazquez and Joe Bravo – all will be on the road at Pimlico this weekend for Preakness. Leparoux may have his run of the stakes. 

Fast from the Start: Not only has Mark Casse topped Fall Stars Weekend stakes, but his 19 opening weekend victories here since 2014 easily best all trainers. Todd Pletcher (11) and Mike Maker (10) are the only other barns in double digits. Julien Leparoux’s 26 Fall Meet opening weekend wins are double that of the next-closest jockeys, Luis Saez and Jose Ortiz, tied with 13. 

Close Circuits: Horses from Churchill Downs preps have 42 victories during the 182 opening weekend Fall Meet races here since 2014, 1 more than the 41 exhibited from those exiting Saratoga races. The Kentucky Downs crew has 26 winners during that time from its very limited meeting. Remarkably, the 42 Churchill winners (average 6.2-1 odds) are imbalanced with 40 on dirt and just 2 on turf. Saratoga’s 41 wins – which average a paltry 3.4-1 return – include 24 in stakes races. The Kentucky Downs alumni are surprisingly spit with 14 turf winners and 12 on dirt, averaging almost 6.5-1 odds. 

Favorable Finds: The favorites are 65-for-182 (36%) on opening weekends since 2014, which includes 53-for-138 on dirt (38%) and just 12-for-44 on turf (27%). The chalk hits just over 30% in the Fall Stars Weekend stakes. Favorites have delivered 10-for-24 (42%) in claiming races during that time, and 25-for-57 (44%) in maiden races. 

See Something in Print: First-time starters have accounted for only 6 of the 57 maiden race winners during Fall Meet opening weekends since 2014, including only 2 since 2016. Of those 6 rookies to debut a winner, 5 were bet to favoritism – and none came in the maiden claiming ranks. Trainer Mark Casse has the last 3 of them to win at first asking, meaning it’s been since 2016 that anyone else has unleashed a debut maiden winner here on a Fall Meet opening weekend.