Jeremy Plonk: 5 Keeneland Keys For Week 3

Expert handicapper Jeremy Plonk of @Horseplayernow looks at a few of the Keeneland keys for the third week of the Fall Meet.

Flo Riders: With jockey Florent Geroux unfortunately sidelined with a fractured sternum, there will be a noticeable shift in riding assignments the rest of the meet. Geroux’s top barns included Brad Cox and Mark Casse, and both will continue to be well-represented in the entry box through the end of the Fall Meet. Look for jockeys Joel Rosario, Julien Leparoux, Javier Castellano and perhaps Tyler Gaffalione to be the benefactors.

Speed is Back on Dirt: As mentioned here for Week 2, a bit of rain and cooler temps were expected to tighten the racetrack and make it less demanding, which are the conditions that conspire to give the appearance of a speed bias. We saw that last week and expect it to continue. The average sprint winner on dirt last week was three-quarters of a length off the lead after the opening half-mile, compared to 2-1/4 lengths back opening weekend.

Churchill Takes Over Main Track: The Churchill Downs preppers in Week 2 won 14 of 31 races on dirt, while no other final prep locale produced more than 3 (Ellis Park, Indiana Grand). Note only 2 of those 14 CD winners were favored and the average winner from that launching pad paid $14.50. Things were much more evenly distributed on turf with Kentucky Downs (5), Saratoga (3) and Churchill (2) divvying up the bulk of the 16 wins. Favorites were surprisingly successful on grass at 7-for-16 on the week.

Meeting Maker: After winning 2 races opening day, the Fall Meet looked like another huge run for Mike Maker’s barn. But he’s gone 1-for-20 since, winning a maiden claimer Sunday with Queenofcatniphill to shake 19 straight losses. But note he’s only run 9 horses at the meeting under 5-1 odds, and he’s 9: 3-3-1 with those that were supposed to fire good shots. Note Maker has won 7 races, most of any trainer, during Week 3 of the past 2 Fall Meets.

Turf Marathons on Tap: This week’s racing features the Sycamore (Thursday) and Dowager (Sunday) on turf at 1-1/2 miles. Graham Motion leads all Keeneland trainers in turf marathon wins since Fall 2006 with 12 victories. Mike Maker (9), Roger Attfield (7) and Chad Brown (6) are next. Note Brown has a fabulous 6-for-13 mark in Keeneland turf marathons since 2015, including wins in 5 of his last 7 bids.