Jeremy Plonk's 5 Keeneland Keys for Week 3

5 KEENELAND KEYS FOR WEEK 3 

By Jeremy Plonk @Horseplayernow 

Racing This Week: Wednesday-Sunday, October 14-18 

Week Three, Seek These: It’s no surprise that Mike Maker’s 9 Week 3 Fall Meet wins over the past 3 years top all trainers at Keeneland. But as the meet proceeds, which other barns have saved bullets historically? Chris Block won 3 races here in Fall 2019 during this week at 5-2, 11-1 and 19-1 prices. Rodolphe Brisset has had Week 3 wins each of the past 3 years, totaling 5 in all. Three of those were 2YO maiden breakers held in reserve. Norm Casse also had a trio of maiden graduates between Week 3 of 2018 and 2019. Ben Colebrook, too, had 3 maiden breakers, all in 2018, a pair of them at 12-1 offerings. Under-the-radar Robert Cline has popped 11-1, 12-1 and 19-1 upsets in recent Week 3s (each in 7-furlong sprints). Mike Tomlinson’s 5 wins over the past trio of Week 3s include a pair each in 2018 and 2019 (none favored, averaged 7-1), and all came in the dirt sprint ranks. Other than Cline, each of these trainers already are represented in the entries either Wednesday, Thursday or Friday. 

Halftime: Midway through the 2020 Fall Meet, horses via Kentucky Downs have won half of the 20 turf races offered. Those 10 scores are twice that of any other circuit (Churchill 5) and include a quartet of stakes from 5-1/2 furlongs to 1-1/8 miles. Turf favorites at the meet from Kentucky Downs are a very reliable 9: 5-1-2 and represent 9 different trainers. 

Rich Get Richer: Leading jockey Tyler Gaffalione, now with 11 wins through the first 8 days, has no less than 5 mounts for champion trainer Chad Brown lined up Wednesday through Friday. Javier Castellano returns back to Belmont this week, and he notably won 5 races here Week 2 (including 2 for Brown).  Gaffalione also rides first call for the meet’s leading trainer, Mike Maker, and has won 6 times in 14 tandem bids so far on the stand. Gaffalione has ridden 17 favorites at the meet; no other rider scheduled to compete here during the upcoming weekdays has had more than 4. 

Tap-In Putts: Trainers Mike Maker and Brad Cox simply aren’t missing when counted upon by the public. Maker has won 7 straight times with a Keeneland favorite dating back to the 2019 Fall Meet (3-3 this meet, 3-3 summer meet, and 1 to close the ’19 Fall). Cox also has been true when expected, going 5: 4-0-1 with his favorites at the 2020 Fall Meet, and his chalks are 5-for-7 locally dating back to ’19 Fall. 

Early Returns: Week 3 is a bit early for run-back horses second time at the meet, but we’ve had 6 such winners over the past 3 Fall Meets, so don’t be immediately dismissive. We’ll probably see 2 or 3 this week. A pair of those 6 wins were 10-1 and 20-1 prices, but the other 4 were well-enough backed. Three of the successes came in dirt claimers at $16,000 or less (2 at the $7,500 bottom level). Trainers to pull it off: JR Caldwell, Scott Geiner, Chris Hartman, Mike Maker, Ingrid Mason and Ron Moquett.