Jeremy Plonk's 5 Keeneland Keys for Week 4

By Jeremy Plonk @Horseplayernow 

Racing This Week: Wednesday-Saturday, October 21-24 

Final Follows: If you followed our Week 3 trainers to watch from a historical perspective, you’re welcome for $48.60 winner Sugoi on Saturday via Mike Tomlinson’s barn. Over the past 3 years, 5 trainers have stood out in closing weeks of Keeneland Fall Meets. Steve Asmussen has 7 closing week wins during that time (3 in both 2017 & 2018, 1 last year; including 5 maiden breakers in dirt sprints). Mike Maker also has 7 during that time (2-2-3 with his most last year, including 3 horses running back second time at the meet). Robertino Diodoro won 3 last year alone during closing week, 2 with horses running back second time at the meet. Chris Hartman was quiet last Fall, but had 4 closing week wins in 2018 (all dirt, 3 sprints, 2 maidens). And Ian Wilkes has posted 4 allowance wins over the past 3 closing weeks of Fall Meets, but his 0-43 mark at the current stand is totally out of character for him.  

Nice to See You Again: The ‘run-backs,’ those horses making their second start of the meet, have a strong closing week influence, averaging 7.3 winners per season the last 3 Fall finales. With 37 races typically offered to close the stand, expect to see 1 in 5 winners this week that you’ve already seen once at the meet. Of the 22 overall run-back winners Week 4 the last 3 years, 10 were favorites and only 3 were above 4-1 odds (average winner 3-1). Nearly two-thirds came in claiming (7) or maiden claiming (7) races. Only 1 of the 22 has come on turf, while 12 were via sprint and 9 via route. Last week we hit right on Week 3 past averages with 2 run-back winners, including Dowager Stakes heroine Blame Debbie, the meet’s only 2-time winner so far. 

OK Corrales: Jockey Gerardo Corrales has made his presence felt at the 2020 Fall Meet with 7 wins, following up on his 3-win short summer stand locally. His Fall Meet mounts are 21: 7-2-4 heading into closing week and produced a $1.61 ROI for every $1 bet. Before you give too much credit to his association with Wesley Ward, note he’s 3-10 with Ward this meet – and 4-11 with everyone else. 

Making Sense: Sire Street Sense has had a fantastic Fall Meet with 4 of his offspring winning on the main track. They’ve ranged from 6-1/2 furlongs to 1-3/16 miles in distance. His 15: 4-2-0 dirt record at the current meet has produced a $1.22 return for every $1 bet. 

The Race Is On: With a tip of the cap to George Jones, the race for leading jockey and trainer at the 2020 Fall Meet appears down to a few in each group. Tyler Gaffalione’s 18-12 lead over Florent Geroux would appear relatively safe among the riders. The trainer’s race saw Brad Cox win 3 on Sunday to take an 11-10 lead into closing week over Mike Maker. Steve Asmussen isn’t out of touch with his 8 wins. Among entries for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday already drawn, Asmussen leads with entries in 9 races while Cox and Maker each appear in 6. Friday could be the tell-tale day when Cox and Asmussen each have 4. How many enter for these barns on Saturday will give some indication how important a title is to each.