Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | February 13, 2021

Race 13 at Fair Grounds | Saturday February 13 | Post Time 7:18 PM Eastern

Risen Star Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $400,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Three Year Olds

I am very excited about the prospects for a nice profit in this year’s Risen Star because I’m going to pick Santa Cruiser (10), who opens at 15/1, to post the upset in the Risen Star, even after finishing fourth and nearly 10 lengths behind the top three finishers in the Lecomte Stakes last month. The reason is a simple one as I feel if not for significant trouble at the start of that race Santa Cruiser would have at least finished second. Additionally, he had been off for two months prior to the Lecomte so he has improving to do second off the layoff. Last summer, Santa Cruiser debuted at six furlongs and finished third, then stretched out to seven furlongs and improved to finish second. When stretched out again to a mile in November, Santa Cruiser won while leading from the start but it was not an easy win as he was headed after six furlongs and had horse come to him on both sides in the stretch, digging in and drawing off. That effort earned a strong 95 Equibase Speed Figure, the best maiden winning figure in the field. Rested to return as a three year old off that win, Santa Cruiser was decently regarded by bettors at seven to one in the Lecomte Stakes but got bumped and shut off at the start, losing more than a few lengths. Not asked for any speed while last of eighth for the first half-mile, Santa Cruiser showed a decent amount of ability and instinct, passing all but the three who were well ahead when the field turned for home. Getting a jockey change to Adam Beschizza, who is fighting for the riding title head and head with James Graham, and with a clean start and better early position as compared to the Lecomte, Santa Cruiser can be in the thick of the action from the start and post the upset win in this year’s Risen Star.

Midnight Bourbon (6) has done little wrong in five career starts to date, finishing second in the Iroquois Stakes in only the second start of his career last summer then winning the Lecomte Stakes last month. The 99 figure is the second best earned by any horse in the Risen Star field to date and it is likely to be improved upon as Midnight Bourbon is making his second start after three months off. Although he won the Lecomte leading from start to finish, Midnight Bourbon has shown the ability to pass horses such as in the Iroquois when fifth in the early stages then first with an eighth of a mile to go before settling for second. Being a half-brother to 2017 Louisiana Derby winner Girvin, there’s little doubt this colt can run as well or better at the nine furlong trip of the Risen Star as he did in the shorter Lecomte Stakes and as such Midnight Bourbon could be a formidable opponent once more. Opening at 6/1 odds, Midnight Bourbon can easily be bet to win in this race.

Senor Buscador (5) stretched out off a visually impressive seventh to first win at five and one-half furlongs in his November debut to win the Springboard Mile Stakes just as impressively in his second career start the next month. In that race, Senor Buscador was last of 10 for the first half-mile and more than 10 lengths back, but went from eighth to first on the turn while circling the field wide, eventually drawing off to a five and three-quarter length win. The 107 figure is by far the best earned by any horse in the Risen Star field and being as this race will be only the third start of his career, Senor Buscador has every right to improve off the effort. His pedigree also suggests the mile and one-eighth trip will be within his reach, as he is a half-brother to 2018 Sunland Park Derby winner Runaway Ghost. Additionally, a STATS Race Lens query shows how well trainer Todd Fincher does keeping his horses in top form, having won eight of 27 (30%) dirt route races over the past few years when his horse won its previous start.

A number of other horses have a chance to finish second or third, including the Lecomte second and third place finishers, Proxy (2) (97 figure) and Mandaloun (11) (97 figure), respectively. However watching the race not only were they no match for Midnight Bourbon I felt both ran pretty evenly in the last eighth of a mile and I don’t expect enough improvement to turn the tables on the horse which beat them in the Risen Star. Keepmeinmind (3) earned a career-best 98 figure when third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and if he weren’t coming back from two and one-half months off he would be a win contender. Opening at 3 to 1 odds and likely to be the favorite near post time, I think he’s a poor win bet but certainly a horse to use on any exacta or trifecta tickets played.

Win betting strategy:

Santa Cruiser (10) AND Midnight Bourbon (6) to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Minimum odds for a win bet on Senor Buscador (5) are also 3 to 1 so if Midnight Bourbon gets bet down from his 6 to 1 starting odds below 3 to 1 I would have no hesitation betting Senor Buscador to win.

Exactas:

Senor Buscador (5), Midnight Bourbon (6) and Santa Cruiser (10) over Senor Buscador (5), Midnight Bourbon (6), Santa Cruiser (10), Starrininmydreams (1), Proxy (2), Mandaloun (11), Keepmeinmind (12) and Rightandjust (13).

Trifecta:

Senor Buscador (5), Midnight Bourbon (6) and Santa Cruiser (10) over Senor Buscador (5), Midnight Bourbon (6) and Santa Cruiser (10) over ALL