Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | June 11, 2022

Race 8 at Belmont Park | Saturday June 11 | Post Time 3:53 PM Eastern

Jaipur Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $400,000 | Six Furlongs on Turf | Three Year Olds and Upward

Top Contenders:

With a possible 13 horse field if there are no scratches, this year’s Jaipur Stakes is going to be an incredible race to watch and wager on. Seven of the 13 enter the race off in-the-money finishes and a couple others encountered trouble in their most recent starts so might have also been included in that count. Separating them has been a difficult task, but I think four of the 13 have bigger shots to succeed than the rest and a couple of those open at 12 to 1 while my top choice opens at 6 to 1.

Scuttlebuzz (8) is that top pick, not only as he enters the race off a win on the course in a stakes but because that effort came on the heels of nearly five months off. Going back to last September, he’s won four of five, the last two under Castellano, who rides back. He won without Lasix last time out so there’s no concern there and he’s only been worse than second one time in six starts on the Belmont grass. He closed powerfully while five wide and still was drawing away in the Elusive Quality Stakes last month and he’s won six of eight career starts at this six furlong turf trip, accounting for all but one of his career wins. We would not get this kind of value except for the depth and size of the field and we must grab it with gusto as Scuttlebuzz is the likely winner of this race by repeating or improving on his last effort.

That being said, two horses who come out of the Turf Sprint Stakes on Derby day figure to make a lot of noise. Those are Chasing Artie (11) and Arrest Me Red (5). Also exiting that race are Gear Jockey (12) and Gregorian Chant (13), who for reasons mentioned later is are contenders for exacta bets but not win contenders.

Of the pair, Chasing Artie (11) opens at 15 to 1 odds impossible to pass up because he was ELIMINATED at the start when stumbling badly to get away last of 13 in an extremely tough field. Still, although with little chance he rallied from 12^th of 13, 13 lengths back with three furlongs to run and was beaten just four lengths at the end. Subtracting that effort, he’s a perfect four-for-four on turf including two stakes races. John Velazquez rode Chasing Artie just once, a winning race at five furlongs on turf and the horse has tactical speed to can go for the lead or sit off the pace. If he breaks well, he’s highly likely to run a lot better than his high odds suggest he will.

Arrest Me Red (5) won the Turf Sprint on Derby day, as the 5 to 2 favorite, and did so gamely after pressing the pace in the five path early then drawing off late. He also won the Belmont Turf Sprint Invitational last October, both wins coming under Irad Ortiz, Jr., who rides here. He is making his third start off the layoff since last year so has a one race edge over Scuttlebuzz, plus was flattered when Turf Sprint runner-up Bran shipped to California to win a stakes race recently. He’s a perfect three-for-three at the trip which can’t be knocked but I prefer Scuttlebuzz’s six for eight record and 6 to 1 starting odds to that of Arrest Me Red so he’s not as good a win bet in my opinion. Just the same, Arrest Me Red is a MUST to use on any exacta or trifecta tickets we play.

Last among the quartet which could make us a lot of money in this race is True Valour (3), who like Chasing Artie opens at double digit odds, 12 to 1 in this case. He’s another who recently returned from a layoff, winning the King T. Leatherbury Stakes at five and one-half furlongs on turf near the end of April and following 13 months off. He’s earned over a half-million dollars and was stakes placed in the Joe Hernandez Stakes at Santa Anita just before the layoff. Fergal Lynch rode True Valour for the first time in that last race and rides back and although the horse led from start to finish that day he’s shown time and again in his other five wins on turf he does not need the lead to win.

Other horses I could not argue with anyone over if they asked my opinion are; Change of Control (1), who missed by a neck in the Unbridled Sydney Stakes last month; 2021 Jaipur Stakes winner Casa Creed (4), who lost three times after that and twice this year in Saudi Arabia and Dubai but who is working well; Filo Di Arianna (9); Smokin' Jay (10), who finished second in a stakes on Preakness day as well as Turf Sprint third and fourth place finishers, respectively, Gear Jockey (12) and  Gregorian Chant (13).

Win bets:

Scuttlebuzz (8) should be considered for a win wager at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

Because of their high odds, Chasing Artie (11) and True Valour (3) can be considered for win bets, for smaller amounts as compared to Scuttlebuzz, at odds of 5 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Scuttlebuzz (8) over ALL

Chasing Artie (11) over ALL as well as the opposite, which is ALL over Chasing Artie (11).

These bets can be made for smaller amounts as compared to those with Scuttlebuzz because of higher odds on Chasing Artie.

Arrest Me Red (5) over Change of Control (1), True Valour (3), Casa Creed (4), Filo Di Arianna (9), Smokin’ Jay (10), Gear Jockey (12), Gregorian Chant (13).