Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | June 18, 2022

Race 14 at Monmouth | Saturday June 18 | Post Time 6:15 PM Eastern

Salvator Mile Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $150,000 | One Mile | Three Year Olds and Upward

Analysis and top contenders:

In terms of class, only Hot Rod Charlie (3) and Shirl’s Speight (4) have won at the top grade 1 stakes level in their careers. Helium (5) and Mind Control (1) are both grade 2 winners, but Helium’s win came 15 months ago and against three year olds only in the 2021 Tampa Bay Derby so he appears to have much less probability to win than the other three, particularly as he has finished second twice in a row this year in allowance level races and as the heavy favorite.

Of the trio, I have to give Shirl’s Speight (4) slight preference because it’s highly likely he will offer better value for a win bet as compared to Hot Rod Charlie (3).

Shirl’s Speight (4) has won five of 10 races in his career, including the Tampa Bay Stakes this past February with a then career-best 105 Equibase Speed Figure, followed by a visually impressive victory in the Maker’s Mark Mile in April with a 110 figure. Nine of his 10 races have come on turf or all-weather and the only time he ran on conventional dirt like he is doing here he finished fifth. However, that was a sprint and he’s not a sprinter. He followed that effort up with 11 months away from the races so it’s not relevant in my opinion. He loves running about a mile, where his record is four for seven, and jockey Emma Wilson, who rode him to victory in the Tampa Bay Stakes comes down from Woodbine to ride him today, foregoing an entire day of mounts at her home track. Although fourth in the Turf Classic Stakes when last seen in May, not only was the mile and one-eighth distance a bit too far for Shirl’s Speight, the race has turned out to be a very productive “key” race from which three of the other eight have won and another finished second including the one-two finishers in the Manhattan Stakes last weekend. Being a son of Speightstown, who has had eight different sons or daughters win stakes race on conventional dirt, I believe Shirl’s Speight can run as well as he did on grass in the Maker’s Mark Mile and win this year’s Salvator Mile Stakes.

There’s no doubt Hot Rod Charlie (3) can win this race by repeating any of his last seven efforts going back to his runner-up finish in the 2021 Belmont Stakes. He won the Haskell Stakes at Monmouth one month later but was disqualified, before winning the Pennsylvania Derby last fall with authority and a career-best 117 figure. This year he missed by a nose in the San Antonia Stakes before travelling to Dubai and winning the Al Maktoum Challenge. Next, in the Dubai World Cup, showing all his heart Hot Rod Charlie never gave up and finished second in a strong field of 10. Rested nearly three months and working very well at his home based in southern California, Hot Rod Charlie may need only repeat any of his last three efforts to win.

Mind Control (1) has won nine of 25 races so is definitely no slouch. Known primarily as a sprinter, nevertheless he has won twice and finished second in the other of his last three races at this mile trip. The most recent of those came last September in the Parx Dirt Mile Stakes where he earned a 107 figure which might be competitive with the top two contenders. Most recently he finished a well-beaten third in the Carter Handicap and in the Churchill Downs Stakes but those were grade one events compared to this grade three level, if Mind Control can run back to his last mile effort he could be competitive here.

Win bets:

Shirl’s Speight (4) at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Shirl’s Speight (4) over Mind Control (1) and Hot Rod Charlie (3).

Shirl’s Speight (4) over ALL.