Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | May 28, 2022

Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday May 28 | Post Time 5:26 PM Eastern

Keertana Stakes | Purse $160,000 | One Mile and One-Half on Turf | Fillies and Mares, Four Years Old and Upward

Top Contenders:

Stand Tall (1) won the one and only time previously she ran this mile and one-half distance on turf. That win came last October in a highly rated second level allowance race at Keeneland. In that race, Stand Tall stalked the pacesetter in second from the start then took over with an eighth of a mile to go and inched away. I’m expecting the same effort and result in this year’s Keertana Stakes, because Stand Tall gets the rail and there appears to be only one horse in the field likely to be in front from the start. That horse is Undisturbed (9), who has to be sent from her outside post and who wears blinkers and whose maiden win last August on the grass was earned leading from start to finish under Landeros, who gets on today after three races with another jockey this year. That puts Geroux, who rode Stand Tall to victory the first time he was aboard in that race last October, in the catbird seat. I’m not concerned about her eighth place effort three weeks ago because it is very obvious that was a prep for this race, given she had been off for seven months. With a very nice half-mile workout (47.6) one week ago which was the 12^th fastest of 138 on the day, I firmly believe Stand Tall can post the mild upset at 6 to 1 starting odds and win this year’s Keertana Stakes.

La Lune (4) also offers value, opening at 8 to 1, although she does have a lower probability to win as compared to Stand Tall. La Lune imported from England last September and nearly won the Kentucky Downs Ladies Marathon Stakes when rallying from 10^th of 12 early to miss by a neck. She did not run as well in three races since but all three were tougher, grade 3 stakes. She makers her second start after returning from five months off and she takes blinkers off following a one race failed experiment. In her last start before the layoff and before importing to the U.S., La Lune won at this mile and one-half turf trip in England, rather comfortably by nearly two lengths, so she has proven capable of winning at the trip and class level.

Temple City Terror (7) is on a nearly identical pattern to the one prior to winning the 2021 Keertana Stakes. She finished third in a classified allowance race at Keeneland in April, 2021, then rallied from 16 lengths back to win this race last year under jockey Beschizza. After two third place efforts with other jockeys, and in graded stakes, she went on the sidelines from last August until last month. After the eight month layoff, Beschizza got back aboard and Temple City Terror finished third of seven after getting to second and within a half-length of the winner in the stretch. Similar to Stand Tall, that race for Temple City Terror was likely nothing more than a prep to defend her title this time and there is every reason to believe she’s going to be much more physically fit in this situation so she rounds out a strong trio of contenders which have an edge on the rest in terms of their probability to win.

For some exactas we can throw in Disappearing Act (2) and Luck Money (8) Disappearing Act (2) because both have run well at this 12 furlong turf trip but each has more second place finishes as compared to wins in their careers.

Win bets:

Stand Tall (1) should be considered for a win bet at 3 to 1 or more.

La Lune (4) and Temple City Terror (7) can be considered for win bets at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Box Stand Tall (1), La Lune (4) and Temple City Terror (7).

Stand Tall (1), La Lune (4) and Temple City Terror (7) over Stand Tall (1), Disappearing Act (2), , La Lune (4) and Temple City Terror (7) and Luck Money (8).